Ukraine is preparing for what could be a decisive counteroffensive to liberate territories occupied by Russia. The longer Kyiv waits, the better its chances seem to get.
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A Polish highway near the Ukrainian border. On a rainy April morning, a convoy of 12 olive-green army trucks appears. They're driving into Poland from Ukraine, flatbeds empty. "I saw them a week ago, they brought tanks to Ukraine," a taxi driver says. "Very big tanks."
Ukraine is going to need every one of those tanks in the coming weeks and months. At the moment, its leadership is putting the final touches on the much-awaited counteroffensive it announced months ago. It is hoped this will turn around the grueling trench warfare the country is currently locked in and drive Russia out of its occupied territories. It could be a decisive battle, a fight for liberation.
Fighting over Bakhmut to gain time
These days, visitors to Kyiv can witness the proverbial calm before the storm. Russian missile attacks such as those that killed nearly 20 people in the central Ukrainian city of Uman Friday have become rare. On the capital's well-tended streets, trees and flowers are blossoming, cafes bustling. The war seems far away. And yet, there are constant reminders everywhere: Signs calling civilians to volunteer or collect donations for the armed forces line the streets. Almost daily, coffins with prominent fallen soldiers are laid out on the Maidan, Kyiv's Independence Square.
A particularly high number of fighters are currently dying in Bakhmut. For months, the beleaguered city in the Donetsk region has been intensely fought over, and has now largely fallen into Russian hands. But Ukraine's armed forces have refused to back away. Heads of state and the military have explained that this is to protect other nearby cities. Still, Kyiv does not simply want to tie down Russian forces in Bakhmut, but also gain time to prepare its counteroffensive. This is why the Ukrainian armed forces have been sparing their reserves and accepting high casualties — precise casualty numbers are unknown.
Andriy and Maxim (names changed to protect their identities) also fought in Bakhmut. Now, they are back in Kyiv and can finally rest. "I really hope it was worth it," said Andriy when asked about the decision to hold Bakhmut, though he does not seem so certain it was. Maxim talks about Russia's superior number of fighters, Ukraine's ill preparation, and his unit's paltry gear. What do both of them hope to gain from the counteroffensive? "Finally some liberated territories," Maxim replied.
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Why is Kyiv waiting?
The planned counteroffensive is a recurrent topic in the Ukrainian media but military representatives remain tight-lipped. When asked, they simply reply, "wait and see." There are many reasons for this approach. For one, the weapons expected from the West have not all been delivered yet. Since early 2023, Ukraine has received a lot of "heavy metal" from NATO, as it's called colloquially. They are receiving much of it for the first time: dozens of modern battle tanks and armored personnel carriers from German and British production, American Patriot air defense missile systems, Soviet fighter jets.
The digital news outlet Ukrainska Pravda estimates the army and the national guard have created at least 16 new brigades, encompassing about 50,000 fighters in total. These new units need time to prepare and familiarize themselves with their new weapons. An additional challenge is coordinating numerous formations for a major offensive. Until now, Ukraine has had little experience doing this. Professional circles in Kyiv say possible scenarios have been simulated on computers.
In addition, weather conditions are far from optimal. Rains have made many country roads impassable for heavy military equipment. And Ukrainian soldiers need to wait for thicker foliage to grow so they can use it for cover. It will still take a while for their surroundings to become dry enough and green enough.
Main thrust towards Crimea
One of the best-kept secrets at present is where, when, and how Ukraine plans to attack. There are expected to be at least two main directions of impact — in the fall of 2022, the army successfully pushed towards Kharkiv and Kherson.
In September 2022, in his only programmatic paper so far, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lieutenant General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi offered only a rough sketch of how a Ukrainian counteroffensive might look. In the paper, he spoke of "several resolute, ideally simultaneous counterattacks." One strategically crucial target Zaluzhnyi mentioned was the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. In Kyiv, all agree this is the main direction Ukraine should focus its efforts. But they are also expecting surprises and deceptive maneuvers. Many, however, doubt Ukraine has enough equipment and fighting power to regain the peninsula.
Russia's war in Ukraine: A timeline in pictures
On the morning of February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. According to the United Nations, thousands of soldiers and civilians have already lost their lives. A timeline of the shocking events in pictures.
Image: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
A dark day for millions
On the morning of February 24, 2022, many Ukrainians woke up to explosions like these in the capital, Kyiv. Russia had launched a full-scale invasion, marking the biggest attack by one state against another since World War II. Ukraine immediately declared martial law. Civil structures were targeted, and the first deaths were reported soon after.
Image: Ukrainian President s Office/Zuma/imago images
Merciless shelling
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of a "special military operation," and said he aimed to capture the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Residents of the city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast took shelter in basements for weeks. Many died under rubble. A Russian airstrike on a theater where hundreds of people had taken refuge in March has been condemned by human rights groups.
Image: Nikolai Trishin/TASS/dpa/picture alliance
Mass exodus
The war in Ukraine has caused a rate of forced emigration unseen in Europe since World War II. According to the UN refugee agency UNHCR, more than 8 million people have fled the country. Poland alone has taken in 1.5 million people, more than any other EU state. Millions of people, primarily from eastern and southern Ukraine, were forced to flee.
Image: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP
Scenes of horror in Bucha
After just a few weeks, the Ukrainian army managed to drive Russian military forces from areas in the north and northeast of the country. Russia's plan to besiege the capital, Kyiv, failed. After the regions were freed, the extent of alleged Russian atrocities became apparent. Images of tortured and murdered civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, went around the world. Officials reported 461 deaths.
Image: Carol Guzy/ZUMA PRESS/dpa/picture alliance
Devastation and death in Kramatorsk
The number of civilian victims in Donbas increased rapidly. Officials told the civilian population to retreat to safer areas, but Russian missiles also targeted people as they attempted to escape, including in Kramatorsk. More than 61 were killed and 120 injured at the city's railway station in April, as thousands were hoping to reach safety.
During Russian aerial attacks, millions of Ukrainians have sought refuge in shelters of some kind. For people close to the front lines within artillery range, basements have become like second homes. Residents of big cities have also sought shelter from the missiles. In Kyiv (as seen above) and Kharkiv, subway stations have double as safe havens.
Image: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
High nuclear risk in Zaporizhzhia
In the first weeks after the invasion, Russia occupied a large area of the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, including near Kyiv. Fighting spilled over on to the premises of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the southeast, which has been under Russian control ever since. The International Atomic Energy Agency sent experts to the plant and called for a safe zone around the area.
Image: Str./AFP/Getty Images
Desperate last stand in Mariupol
The Russian army held Mariupol under siege for three months, preventing shipments of ammunition and other supplies. The Asovstal steel plant was seen as the last Ukrainian stronghold in the city, sheltering thousands of soldiers and civilians. After an extended attack last May, thousands of Russian soldiers took control of the plant, capturing more than 2,000 people in the process.
Image: Dmytro 'Orest' Kozatskyi/AFP
Symbol of resistance
Russia conquered Snake Island in the Black Sea on the first day of the war. A conversation between Ukrainian and Russian service members, during which the Ukrainians refused to surrender, went viral online. In April, the Ukrainians claimed to have sunk the Russian warship Moskva, one of two vessels involved in the attack on the island. In June, Ukraine said it had driven Russians off the island.
Image: Ukraine's border guard service/AFP
Death toll unclear
The war's exact death toll remains unclear. According to the UN, at least 7,200 civilians have been killed and another 12,000 wounded — and the numbers could much higher. The exact number of Ukrainian soldiers killed is also uncertain. In December, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak estimated the number as being up to 13,000. Impartial statistics aren't available.
Image: Raphael Lafargue/abaca/picture alliance
Game changer for Ukraine
The delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine has been a hot topic since the early days of the war, but Kyiv received few of them at first. The US-manufactured HIMARS rocket launchers were a definite help. They have allowed the Ukrainian military to cut off the ammunition resupply to Russian artillery, and have likely also contributed to Ukraine's successful counteroffensives.
Image: James Lefty Larimer/US Army/Zuma Wire/IMAGO
Relief at liberations
At the start of September, the Ukrainian military conducted a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The surprised Russians quickly retreated, leaving equipment, ammunition and even evidence of alleged war crimes behind. The Ukrainian military was also able to liberate Kherson in the south, and its residents cheered at the arrival of Ukrainian soldiers.
Image: Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Explosion on Crimean bridge
At the beginning of October, a massive explosion occurred on the bridge Russia built across the Kerch Strait to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula it has occupied since 2014. The bridge was partially destroyed. Russia claims an explosives-laden truck from Ukraine caused the damage, but officials in Kyiv have not claimed responsibility for any attack.
Image: AFP/Getty Images
Massive attacks on energy infrastructure
A few days after the blast on the Crimean bridge, Russia carried out its first large-scale assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Power outages occurred in regions from Lviv to Kharkiv. Since then, such attacks have become common. Due to the enormous damage to power plants and other civil infrastructure, people in Ukraine have endured power outages and water shortages almost daily.
Image: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
European integration
Daily video messages from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which he reports on the state of the country and the ongoing war, are viewed by millions of people. Zelenskyy hasn't only been able to unify his country's population, but has also gained Western support. European integration has progressed greatly under his leadership, and Ukraine is now on the path to EU membership.
Image: Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP
Hoping for Leopard 2 tanks
How well Ukraine can fend off Russian attacks depends greatly on the aid the country receives. A US-led group of countries has offered a billion-dollar package of humanitarian, financial and military aid. Shipping heavy artillery was hotly debated in the West, largely due to concerns about reaction from Russia. But Ukraine will end up receiving Western tanks, most of them German-made Leopard 2s.
Image: Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images
Bakhmut: A city in ruins
For months, fierce battles have been raging over Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Since Ukrainian troops lost control of the nearby settlement of Soledar in early 2023, defending the city has become even harder. In January, Germany's secret service reported daily losses in three figures on the Ukrainian side. But the Russian death toll is believed to be even higher.
Image: LIBKOS/AP/dpa/picture alliance
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Others believe the main thrust will be directed towards the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine. From there, Ukrainian forces are expected to push towards the Crimean peninsula to cut Russian troops off from overland supply routes. This would be a great success for Kyiv, analysts say. But it will not be easy — Russia has built up multiple lines of defense. Also, unlike last year in Kharkiv and Kherson, Russia is now expected to respond with counterattacks of its own. That is one of the risks Ukraine will take with its expected counteroffensive.
Counteroffensive would not end war
Despite such concerns, the mood in Kyiv is cautiously optimistic. "This strike cannot fail. More territories will be liberated," one military expert said. "The question is: How much, and at what cost?" Andriy knows the cost, he's reminded of it every time he looks through the contact list in his phone. "Many comrades have fallen. I can't bring myself to delete their numbers."
It remains unclear what will happen after the counteroffensive. Many worry the West might pressure Ukraine to negotiate and make painful concessions if it fails to live up to expectations. Top military leaders have already rejected that scenario. "That's not going to happen," Andriy said. Like many in Kyiv, he is expecting a long war that won't end with the counteroffensive. Instead, he's hoping for more convoys from the West, with far more heavy military equipment.