Several UN agencies responsible for supporting refugees and displaced people say their capacity to deliver services will be pushed to the limit as winter approaches in many of the most vulnerable encampments around the world.

This week, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization each highlighted the pressure that aid cuts are putting on their food and shelter resources for millions of displaced people.

The strain has been further spurred by the worsening situation in Sudan, Central and West Africa, and ongoing crises in the Middle East.

The WFP and FAO have said just over a third of the $29 billion (around €25 billion) they estimate is needed to deliver vital food aid to hunger hotspots — many in or near conflict zones — has been received.

UNHCR has said it currently has around $3.9 billion in available funds. That’s about the same — not adjusted for inflation — as a decade ago. Since then, the number of displaced people in need of humanitarian aid has doubled.

The implication for those living in refugee camps or informal settings across the world is that adequate food, shelter and heating will be reduced or disappear as winter sets in.

A UNHCR spokesperson told DW around a third of refugees globally could lose access to humanitarian aid, owing to budget cuts.

"Essential programs are being cut or put on hold, and millions face deteriorating living conditions, heightened risks of exploitation and abuse, and may be pushed into further displacement," they said.

USAID cuts setting in

Mostly, the aid strain has been brought about by substantial cuts to foreign aid budgets by governments.

These were headlined by the Trump administration’s decision to wind down the United States’ main humanitarian program, the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

But the US is not alone. Though it accounted for the largest share of governmental aid, the US’s cuts are part of a widespread aid reduction by many countries. As the year draws to a close, the pressure of these absent funds is setting in.

"The extent of it varies by location," explains Nicholas Micinski, a researcher in the global governance of migration at the American University, US.

"The cliff edge is coming, though, most of the grants that were dispersed [prior to the closure of USAID], they’re running out."

While aid agencies are disproportionately funded by these governmental contributions, some financing is supplied through large philanthropic donations and from supportive foundations.

But Micinski said it is unrealistic to expect donations from outside government to gap-fill. "The future is not going to be filled in by philanthropy or individual donations," he said.

So, to stretch their dwindling finances, many agencies, particularly those operating under the auspices of the UN, have been forced to cut thousands of jobs — some accounting for a third of positions — from their workforces, while protecting field operations where possible.

Twice as many displaced people now as a decade ago

The UNHCR estimates over 123 million people are forcibly displaced around the world due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights abuses or other disruptive events.

Two thirds of displaced people cross into neighboring countries seeking asylum or refuge, and more than 70% of these migrants are currently situated in low- and middle-income countries.

Often, refuge settings are informal, not in large camps, nor supervised by aid providers. 

The largest formal refugee camps are located in Kakuma and Dadaab in Kenya, Kutupalong in Bangladesh, Za’atari in Jordan, and Um Rakuba in Sudan. 

Critical food shortages are most keenly felt in regions exposed to ongoing conflict. These include places like Gaza and the West Bank, and Sudan, where famine has been reported. 

Less money, more mouths

Providers have already flagged that they will be forced to prioritize who receives assistance in formal settings. Midway through 2025, the emergency relief coordinator for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Tom Fletcher, said they would be "ruthlessly prioritizing those in the direst need." 

Fletcher said organizations like his had been forced to carry out "cruel math" to determine who will, and will not, receive support. Other agencies echoed that sentiment.

With less money and resources, and more people to support, it is likely that people living in refugee camps will experience hunger and cold. Some will die. though this could be prevented if funding was comparable to previous years, according to the UNHCR.

Speaking to DW, Kerrie Holloway and Mike Pearson, research fellows from the global affairs think tank Overseas Development Institute (ODI) which focuses on development and humanitarian issues, said there would likely be few options left for providers and recipients in formal camp settings, as funding diminishes.

"Particularly looking at those refugees that live in camps where you have the most aid going, I think they'll feel it [the cuts] very strongly because the options for bringing in food and meeting their needs outside of the humanitarian system remain very slim," said Holloway. 

"People will figure out ways to meet their needs, but they might have to rely on some less good coping mechanisms than we would like." 

Longer-term goals to improve the overall efficiency of the UN, as being pushed by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as part of his "UN80" reform program, could help improve how money is used across agencies. There is also a push within parts of the aid sector for money to be put towards localized distribution groups and efforts, rather than large "umbrella" aid organizations working on a global scale.

But reform initiatives are slow moving, and unlikely to improve the short-term situation for many. For displaced people, they may have to decide what actions to take to survive.

"It's not like migrants or refugees aren't actors in and of themselves; they make strategic, rational choices," said Micinski. "When the UN stops providing food aid to refugees, they'll choose what to do. The next step is pretty scary."

"It's looking down at the situation of, if you don't get food aid in a place, will you go back to a war zone, back to a place where your families were targeted? Or will you move to a third country, another place? Those are extremely hard choices."