The Iranian regime is hoping for a way out of its current security predicament, as its Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prepares to hold direct talks with US President Donald Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in Oman on Friday. 

Iranian media reports suggest the talks are likely to focus on a package of proposals drawn up by Russia — proposals which they say could be acceptable to both Tehran and Washington.

"These reports have not yet been confirmed by Iranian sources and may differ in certain details from the actual proposals," said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian foreign and security policy and visiting scholar at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.

"However, from Iran's point of view, they appear to be fundamentally acceptable and seem to have been agreed upon during Larijani's visit to Moscow," he added, referring to a recent trip to Russia by Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's National Security Council, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.

A win-win-win for Moscow? 

Azizi believes Russia, like other countries in the region, wants to prevent a US-Iran war that would destabilize the Middle East.

At the same time, Azizi noted that Moscow also insists Tehran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, as this is not in the latter's own interests.

"Moscow also sees the current situation as a particularly favorable moment that promises a threefold gain," Azizi said.

"Firstly, a weakened Iran will be more closely tied to Russia; secondly, Moscow will accommodate US President Trump politically and help him to reach a deal; and thirdly, the Kremlin will attempt to further marginalize Europe's influence not only on the Iran issue, but throughout the Middle East, and to portray European actors as politically insignificant."

Russia has reportedly proposed that the Russian state-owned company Rosatom monitor and control the limited enrichment of uranium at Iranian nuclear reactors, to ensure that the enrichment remains strictly within the agreed limits. 

It's not yet clear, however, whether Russia will be involved in dealing with the estimated 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that Iran currently has in its possession.

The material has been the main stumbling block since the US launched attacks targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

Iranian journalist Hadi Mohammadi, who has covered the nuclear program inside the country for many years, posted on X that "the 60% enriched uranium was produced as a bargaining chip for the lifting of sanctions. The material could be diluted." 

Russia's Putin ready to mediate

The US-Iran talks could be divided into two tracks if successful, reported US daily The Wall Street Journal, adding that one track would deal with Iran's nuclear program and the other with a broader range of issues, including US demands for restrictions on Iran's missile program.

"In my view, the central point of contention between Iran and the US is Iran's missile capability and no longer its nuclear program," Azizi said.

According to Iranian media outlets, the Kremlin has proposed providing guarantees that Iran's missile program will not be used to attack Israel or the United States.

Putin announced in mid-January that he was even prepared to mediate between Iran and Israel. Russia is an ally of Iran, but Moscow also holds some sway in Israel where large parts of the population obtained Israeli citizenship after leaving Russia and other ex-Soviet nations.

The Russian president is attempting to redefine and revive Moscow's influence in the Middle East, which has been weakened by the war in Ukraine, Azizi said.

It remains unclear whether Tehran would agree to guarantee Israel's security, after threatening it with annihilation in the past and insisting that it will not give up its defensive capabilities. 

Trump 'did not do anything' to help Iranian protesters

With the Oman talks looming large, the Trump administration is piling pressure on Tehran.

For the talks to lead to a "meaningful outcome," they need to include issues such as the range of Iran's ballistic missiles, support for terrorist organizations, the nuclear program and Iran's treatment of its own people, US State Secretary Marco Rubio said earlier this week. 

On the other hand, the Iranian regime will no doubt be eager to voice grievances regarding Trump urging Iranian protesters to take over state institutions during the recent unrest.

"President Trump promised the Iranian protesters that help was on the way. He did not do anything," Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst and professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, told DW.

Gerges said the US focus has expanded from Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs to also include Tehran's support for its regional allies and proxies.

"So, it's all about geopolitics," the analyst said. 

Iran acting out of 'sheer necessity'

Last weekend, Trump expressed confidence that an agreement could be reached with the Iranian leadership.

But Iranian expert Azizi said he was "skeptical about the prospects for success" of the talks, as well as any real-world impact of a possible deal.

"Iran is seeking an agreement out of sheer necessity in order to avoid war in the short term. Security issues and the preservation of the regime are the top priorities. The ultimate goal is an agreement that does not provide for a military option or the threat of one," he said.

But Azizi does not foresee any fundamental change in Iranian foreign policy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the enduring row between Washington and Tehran means that a military confrontation remains possible at any time.

In recent weeks, the US has deployed aircraft carriers, warships, fighter jets, and troops to the region, raising fears of an escalation.

This article was originally written in German.