US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have reached agreement on a wide range of issues at the outset of the Japanese leader's weeklong visit to the US. The common ground includes the importance of support for Ukraine, the joint development of emerging technologies and plans for the two nations' space agencies to work together to put a Japanese astronaut on the moon.

For Kishida, however, nothing was more important than securing Biden's renewed commitment to the security and stability of northeast Asia at a time when China continues to expand its military capabilities and confront neighbors in territorial disputes while, simultaneously, North Korea develops more advanced ballistic missiles and reinforces its ties with Russia.

Biden welcomed his Japanese counterpart to the White House on Wednesday by underlining the "unbreakable" and "global" alliance uniting the two nations, and applauded Japan's commitment to increasing defense spending and reinforcing the alliance.

'Global partnership' promise

"The alliance between Japan and the US is a cornerstone of peace, security, prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and around the world," Biden said. "Ours is truly a global partnership. For that, Mr. Prime Minister Kishida, I thank you."

The two leaders' talks resulted in no fewer than 70 "deliverables" — or agreements — but the vow to establish even stronger military ties was arguably the most significant. It's expected to lead to the largest shake-up in Japan's military alliance with Washington since the signing of the US-Japan security treaty in San Francisco in September 1951.

"So much is going on in the world right now, it is all inevitably connected, and events in one region could very easily spill over and destabilize the entire world," said Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University.

As well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, key security issues include tensions across the Taiwan Strait between Beijing and Taipei. Also under discussion are assistance for the Philippines to push back on China's efforts to seize yet more islands in the South China Sea, as well as the ongoing military operation in Gaza and how it could destabilize global trade and the international rules-based order.

"Japan is in a difficult position as it relies on sea trade so heavily, meaning that Tokyo needs to be at the forefront of efforts to influence geopolitics and prevent emergencies. And the best way of doing that is through forging strong security partnerships with like-minded nations," Nagy told DW.

Japan seeking new alliances

That can be seen in Tokyo's keenness to be party to a range of security and trade pacts, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) which brings together India, Australia, the US and Japan, as well as more prominence in a trilateral agreement between Japan, the US and South Korea, signed at Camp David in August 2023. Japan will also attend NATO's upcoming annual meeting in Washington in July.

And while the security alliance with the US is most important for Japan, it does need to be updated more than 70 years after it was first signed.

Both sides see Kishida's trip to Washington as a historic opportunity to modernize the alliance and meet the evolving challenges posed by rivals in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan has already taken steps in that direction by announcing a dramatic increase in defense spending over the coming five years that will lift total outlays to 2% of GDP by 2027. Some of that added funding will go toward advanced missiles that give Japan a counterstrike capability, the purchase of state-of-the-art F-35 fighters and a next-generation fighter jet jointly developed alongside the UK and Italy.

New bases are being constructed on Japan's most southerly islands, in some cases only a few hundred kilometers from the potential flash point of Taiwan, while this week the Maritime Self-Defense Force unveiled the upgraded JS Kaga. Launched in 2015 as a helicopter carrier, it has now been transformed into the first full aircraft carrier operated by Japan since the end of World War II.

Restructuring US military command

Kishida and Biden also announced the creation of a body to discuss the joint development, production and maintenance of defense equipment, and will initiate talks on ways to restructure the US military command in Japan to enhance operational planning and joint exercises between the two nations' forces.

A major element of the closer relationship is expected to be the stationing of a more senior US military officer in Japan with the authority to make rapid decisions instead of having to refer to US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. Washington is also understood to be considering the creation of a new US joint task force that would be attached to the US Pacific Fleet and ultimately be based in Japan.

"I do not expect much of a change in strategy, as this is much more about better communications between the US and Japan, as it all comes down to command and control capability," said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.

"Japan is working on the creation of a Joint Operations Command and the US joint task force plan are both going to require a realignment of forces," he told DW. "Arguably a bigger issue for Japan is a result of the new defense and security posture documents released last year that make all the agreements and guidelines between Japan and the US out-of-date and in need of updating."

More focus on Indo-Pacific

Hinata-Yamaguchi expects future strategy positions jointly released by Japan and the US to make "more explicit mention of the Indo-Pacific" as the primary area of security cooperation, a deliberate move by Tokyo to push the boundaries of its security concerns.

Ironing out the details of the agreement that comes out of Washington will take time, as will coordination and implementation, he said.

"I do not think whatever is agreed will lead to more confrontation with other countries in the region, as there is enough of that going on already," he said. "Japan, the US and South Korea have all made it clear through their actions that they believe the consequences of inaction would be far greater than those from taking action."

"China, North Korea and Russia will complain, of course, but they can be relied on to complain regardless of what Japan or the US do," he added. "The key will be to get other nations in Southeast Asia, the island states of the Pacific and others, that are perhaps reluctant to antagonize China, to take a more overt security posture."

Edited by: John Silk

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