With the "Islamic State" largely defeated, the US has reportedly been looking to form an Arab force to secure northeast Syria. Experts warn the military presence could further complicate an already complex civil war.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/S. George
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On Monday, TheWall Street Journal outlined the Trump administration's wish to form an Arab military force in Syria to replace US troops there. Officials told the newspaper that John Bolton, Donald Trump's national security adviser, recently called Abbas Kamel, Egypt's chief of intelligence and a major figure in President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's government, to seek military and financial support for the initiative.
Officials also told the Journal that Gulf Arab states would join in the efforts. "Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have all been approached with respect to financial support and more broadly to contribute," one administration official said. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are funding Syrian fighters who are supported by the US government.
The goal of the force would be to secure and protect the area from such terror organizations as the "Islamic State", while also serving one of Trump's main campaign promises of having other countries share foreign policy burdens with the US. The initiative could also benefit US business interests in Syria and the wider region. Private military contractors have expressed interest in getting the plan off the ground.
Disturbing the peace?
Bente Scheller, the head of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Beirut, told DW that Egypt and Saudi Arabia are likely to be skeptical about establishing such a military force. "Neither of those countries have sent many troops abroad in the last decade, and I think they both have little interest in doing so," she said. Scheller added that any force would need the consent of Syrian President Bashar Assad to even be allowed in the country.
Scheller believes Kurds in Syria would have 'no interest' in Arab troops coming to the regionImage: Getty Images/AFP/D. Souleiman
Moreover, the presence of this Arab force could disturb the Kurds, who administer some regions. "Kurdish forces and civilians certainly have no interest in having any Arab troops coming to the areas they control," Scheller said. She also noted that even Arab populations in northeastern Syria would not be likely to trust a military occupation force.
Conflicting interests
Other actors in the region, including Turkey, may be more open to the proposal. Officials in Ankara have long been opposed to an autonomous Kurdish state, and deploying an international Arab force might "water down" Kurdish power, Scheller said.
Russia and Iran, however, are less likely to support a new US-allied military presence in the region. Iran — a country that has used militias to expand its influence in in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq — would be particularly dubious of an Arab force led by predominantly Sunni Muslim countries that includes its archrival, Saudi Arabia.
"This is one of the many policy propositions that have been suggested before, but there are many obstacles that may prevent it from coming into reality, with the main one being the absence of any clear American vision in Syria," Hassan Mneimneh, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told DW. "Adding such an ambiguous element to the already complex Syrian war will just make things worse."
Ultimately, Scheller said, forming such a force in Syria would risk bringing in other outside parties whose interests differ from Washington's. "It is a very shortsighted policy in all regards." she said. "It is politically unlikely that any actor on the ground would be fond of this, and it's unlikely the US would have any real control over countries involved in this force."
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
