For days, a cold weather front had brought polar air to Cuba, causing temperatures to drop below freezing on some parts of the island for the first time in recorded history.

But the frosty air hasn't been the only thing bearing down on Cuba from the north.

The United States, after attacking Venezuela — Cuba's closest ally — and abducting its leader Nicolas Maduro has effectively cut off Venezuelan oil supplies to Havana. And in late January, US President Donald Trump called Cuba "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security and threatened to impose tariffs on any state that supplied oil or oil products to the island nation.

Cuban President Migual Diaz-Canel initially slammed the move as "fascist, criminal and genocidal." He has since stated that his country was willing to talk with the US, but "without pressure or preconditions."

He has also warned that Cuba was "close to failing" and announced forthcoming rationing plans to address the energy crisis.

'Trump is harming us simple people'

"Trump is crazy, he wants to take away the very air that we breathe," says Aleida, who runs a homestay in Havana and did not want to share her last name, like all private citizens DW spoke with. "And the other one is even more of a fanatic when it comes to Cuba."

She's referring to Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state and son of Cuban migrants. He's long been seen as a leading voice of "maximum pressure" toward Venezuela and Cuba to force regime change.

"We can only wait and see what happens next," Aleida says, her face drawn with concern.

Rachel, a 21-year-old civil servant, feels a similar uncertainty: "Sometimes I think that [Trump] will attack us next, and sometimes I think he won't let us drown, so he can make himself look like the good guy."

She adds that she expects day-to-day life to get more difficult moving forward.

"Trump is harming us simple people, not the government," says Ramon, a taxi driver in his mid-sixties whose main income is from tourism, which declined sharply in the past year.

By now, gas can only be bought with foreign currency and after hours of waiting in line at dollar-only gas stations.

The country is only able to produce about 40% of the energy it requires. Blackouts have become commonplace — they can last 10 to 15 hours and have even reached the capital, Havana.

Bert Hoffmann, a leading researcher at Germany's GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, says that apart from that, life in Havana is running its regular course.

"I've observed a widespread wait-and-see attitude. There's a great normalization of crisis, a sort of keep calm and carry on," he tells DW. "The blackouts have increased, fuel is in even shorter supply, but it's been fairly gradual. There are still cars on the road."

He adds, however, that this appearance of normalcy is deceptive: The country has "no prospects" of getting oil into the country in the near future, he believes.

A watershed moment in Caracas

Hoffmann says that things have been different since January 3, the day when Venezuela ceased being Cuba's main oil supplier. The island's second-largest supplier, Mexico, also halted its planned oil shipments to Cuba in January.

Hardly any oil shipments have reached the island since December. In January, Cuba appears to have purchased a one-off tanker shipment of oil, bought at spot prices. Departing from Lome, Togo, the shipment was supposed to arrive in early February, but changed its course along the way toward the Dominican Republic.

Hoffmann believes it's safe to assume that this happened due to pressure from the United States.

"That means that, even if Cuba is able to buy oil, it wouldn't arrive," he says, arguing that the same would apply to possible shipments from Algeria, Angola, China or Vietnam.

"For the time being, I'd assume that the US is investing a lot in preventing this," Hoffmann adds. "It's likely that Cuba won't be getting any oil into the country for the foreseeable future. And that's brutal."

Cuba's current demand for oil is an estimated 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd). Until now, between a third and a quarter of that was sourced from Venezuela. In 2025, Mexico supplied between 6,000 and 12,000 bpd, while Russia and Algeria delivered smaller amounts.

"There are rumors that the oil will run out in February," Rachel says. "It's February now."

She hopes the country will be able to reduce its consumption to be able to make the remaining oil last a little longer.

Cuba can't cover its needs with renewable energy or local oil

In the past years, with the support of China, Cuba invested massively in solar energy. But these parks are unable to cover the country's electricity needs. The island's power supply still relies mainly on accident-prone thermal plants of Soviet design, making Cuba heavily dependent on energy imports.

Cuba's own heavy oil can only cover about 40% of the country's overall energy consumption. But it's ill-suited for most fuels, so it's mainly used for power generation.

Hoffmann says nobody really knows how long the remaining oil will last. In late January, the British daily Financial Times predicted the resources could be stretched another 15 to 20 days.

Either way, the fallout will be fatal.

"Basically, it's a matter of [an unknown number of] weeks until the fuel runs out. Then, not only will tourists not be able to get from the beaches to the airports, but food won't make it from the farms to the cities," Hoffmann explains.

And without food the people will go hungry.

Speaking about a German company that produces medical oxygen for hospitals in Cuba, he continues: "If the trucks have no fuel, then the hospitals won't be able to get any oxygen, and the patients will die."

Mexico wants to mediate between Cuba and the US

Mexico recently announced it would be sending humanitarian aid, and was evaluating "diplomatic channels" to be able to send oil to Cuba. But the country's possibilities are limited, as Mexico's economy is very heavily tied to that of the United States. And with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade accord set for formal review this summer, Trump has extra leverage.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has offered to mediate talks between Havana and Washington. But it's unclear what there is to talk about. US State Secretary Rubio has already stated at a recent Senate hearing that he "would love to see" regime change in Cuba.

Unlike Venezuela, Cuba has less economic value than it does symbolic importance. The Caribbean island in many ways represents states' resistance to the Monroe doctrine, which the United States often cites to claim a special sphere of influence in the western hemisphere — notably Latin America.

"They have a score to settle," Hoffmann says. "Washington believes they've got all their hands around [Cuba's] neck, and the time has come for Cuba to capitulate — whatever that might mean in specific terms."

Consequently, he says he has a hard time imagining "which points Cuban leaders might agree upon with Trump and Rubio."

Russia to continue supplying oil to Cuba

Over the past days, Trump has said that his administration was involved in talks with Cuba's leadership, who in turn has denied that ― while both sides had communicated, Cuba said, they had not progressed to formal negotiations.

On Tuesday, Cuba's deputy foreign minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio told the Spanish news agency EFE that "we've exchanged messages," but it "would be a mistake to say that a bilateral negotiation is being designed."

Havana has, however, repeatedly expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue "that is serious, constructive, responsible and respectful of both states' sovereign equality," de Cossio said.

In light of the effective oil blockade, de Cossio added that his country had "limited options" to manage resources. His government has recently announced a contingency plan "that will require a lot of work, creativity and sacrifice," the minister said.

Meanwhile, Russia's ambassador to Havana, Viktor Koronelli, told Russian news agency RIA in an interview that Moscow would continue to supply oil to Cuba.

"Russian oil has been supplied to Cuba on numerous occasion in recent years," he said. "We expect this practice to continue."

This article was originally written in German and translated by Maren Sass.