The seizure of what US President Donald Trump called a "very large" oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela is the latest escalation in the conflict between the two nations.

In recent months, Trump has dispatched covert CIA operatives to Venezuela, vowed to crack down on the country's drug gangs, sought mass deportations of Venezuelans from the US, sent the world's largest aircraft carrier to the region, as well as 15,000 troops and fighter jets and also sunk dozens of alleged "drug boats," leading to a reported 87 deaths.

But how has it come to this?

What is the context of the US-Venezuela conflict?

Relations between the two countries have been strained since 1999, when left-wing populist Hugo Chavez became president of Venezuela. Chavez then accused the US of supporting an attempted coup against him in 2002 before Venezuela expelled its US ambassador later that year.

Tensions slowly heightened after the current but disputed president, Nicolas Maduro, took over after Chavez died in 2013 and then spiked during Trump's first term in 2019. During that year, the US backed Maduro's opponent, Juan Guaido, in a dispute over the 2018 presidential election that lasted until 2023 and saw a global split in support for the rival candidates.

Maduro was reelected in 2024, beating independent candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. The president's main rival, Maria Corina Machado, had been barred from running after being convicted of being involved in a "corruption plot" along with Guaido by Venezuela's Supreme Court. Many international obsevers believed the case to be fabricated.

There was widespread skepticism about the election result. Then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had "serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people."

In October, Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. On Wednesday, her daughter accepted the prize on her behalf at the award ceremony in Oslo, the Norwegian capital.But Machado then made a surprise late appearance despite fearing for her safety. She said that she would return to Venezuela where she has been living in hiding for almost two years.

She is widely expected to become president if Maduro is forced out of office.

 

Does the US want Nicolas Maduro out?

Maduro said in September that the US is "seeking a regime change through military threat," and added last week that Trump is "fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one" as a pretext for such a move.

Trump has been slightly less direct, mentioning in reference to the oil tanker that "other things are happening" without further explanation. However, he did tell the media outlet Politico last week that Maduro's "days are numbered" and has refused to rule out a ground invasion of Venezuela.

The US president's much discussed National Security Strategy, has also raised alarm in Latin America. In reference to the "Western Hemisphere," the document states: "We will reward and encourage the region's governments, political parties, and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy" and "assert ourselves confidently where and when we need to in the region."

Is Venezuela currently sanctioned by the US?

Yes, the sanctions imposed on Venezuela are extensive, and have been since the 2019 dispute.

Back then, Trump signed an executive order that stated: "All property and interests in property of the government of Venezuela that are in the United States... are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in".

These sanctions are broadly similar to those placed on Cuba, Iran and North Korea. 

Is the US interested in oil from Venezuela?

In the case of the seized tanker, yes. "We keep it, I guess," said Trump when asked what would happen to the captured oil.

Despite denials from the White House, many observers — and Maduro — think Venezuela's vast oil reserves, yet relatively impoverished society, make it an attractive target for the Trump administration.

The US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) says Venezuela is sitting on an enormous 303 billion barrels worth of crude — equivalent to about a fifth of the world's global reserves.

However, sanctions have locked Venezuela out of most of the world's most lucrative oil markets, forcing it to sell at knockdown prices to China.

The US also still imports around 100 barrels a day from Venezuela — thanks to a license granted to US company Chevron in Venezuela — this is down from around 1,500 in the late 1990s, according to the USEIA. 

While the US is the world's leading oil producer, Venezuela produces a heavier crude oil used to make diesel, which is in short supply globally, and which fuels many critical manufacturing processes.

In an open letter last month to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which the US is not a member, Maduro accused the US of making "express threats" toward his country, in a way that "seriously endangers the stability of Venezuelan oil production and the international market."

Are there other considerations for Trump and the US in Venezuela?

The US State Department insists that drug trafficking concerns are the reason for the escalation in Trump's interests in Venezuela, saying the country remains "firm in its counter-drug operations in the Caribbean and its commitment to protecting Americans from the Maduro regime's deadly poison." Trump has said the lethal US attacks on boats are targeting "narco-terrorists".

Such a hardline position on a country that is so geographically close to the US is likely to go down well with Trump's domestic supporters, though the legality of the attacks has been called in to question by many experts in both countries.

Edited by: A. Thomas