The Caribbean Sea is already now largely closed to drug smugglers from South America, but on Thursday Donald Trump announced that American troops will also begin land strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers "very soon." Marking another significant escalation, Trump said on Saturday that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela is to be closed in its entirety.

Since early September, the US has killed more than 80 people in attacks on around 20 speedboats with suspected drug smugglers on board — mostly from Venezuela — in the southern Caribbean. Venezuela describes the actions as "extrajudicial executions" and international observers see them as clear violations of international law.

Operation Southern Spear

But of greater concern to Caracas has been the associated demonstration of force off the Venezuelan coast by the US. In the last three months, the US Navy has assembled around 12,000 soldiers and a dozen warships, among them the world's largest aircraft carrier.

The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), which has been ruling by increasingly authoritarian means for over 20 years, with President Nicolás Maduro at its helm, sees this as a direct threat to both the party and the country's sovereignty.

Officially, the US military operation now known as "Southern Spear" is aimed at combating drug smuggling from South America to the US. But the massive military deployment is fueling doubts on many sides that this can be the only goal. Geopolitical interests, such as diminishing the influence of China and Russia in the region, along with economic concerns, have been cited as possible motives. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world.

Cartel de los Soles designated a terrorist organization

There is no doubt that the US government wants to pressure the Venezuelan government. Trump has repeatedly referred to Maduro and his government as narco-terrorists. The United States has offered a $50 million (€58 million) bounty for Maduro's capture — twice as much as that offered for Osama bin Laden, the alleged mastermind of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns), said to be led by Maduro, was also officially designated a terrorist organization early this week. Named after the shoulder insignia worn by officers, the alleged criminal organization has roots in the Venezuelan military. And since PSUV has also always based its power largely on the country's armed forces, Venezuela's rise as one of South America's most important drug trafficking hubs has fueled suspicions that the government is also involved. 

Countermobilization in Venezuela

Maduro denies the existence of Cartel de los Soles, and has described the accusations as a "ridiculous lie" intended to justify "illegal intervention" in Venezuela. At the same time, he and key cabinet members are stirring up Venezuelan nationalism. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López used the105th anniversary of the Venezuelan Air Force on Thursday to call on citizens to "defend the nation with their lives if necessary.”

The government has also provided weapons training to thousands of civilians and activated tens of thousands of militiamen since September. In early November, the Venezuelan armed forces reportedly held a large-scale exercise involving some 200,000 soldiers and paramilitaries — almost two-thirds of the country's currently available armed forces. Maduro has said that 4.5 million trained civilians could be added to that number.

Regime change in Caracas?

While Trump's vague announcement of impending land operations once again sparked accusations that he aims to overthrow Maduro's government, experts consider this unlikely.

"I don't believe that the United States is planning a ground invasion of Venezuela — that could turn into a new Vietnam," says Christian Cwik, a Latin American historian at the University of Klagenfurt, referring to the Vietnam War, in which the US tried unsuccessfully from 1965 to 1975 to resolve the civil war there in favor of anti-communist forces.

Targeted missile strikes or air attacks on suspected smuggling infrastructure, on the other hand, would be conceivable, Cwik says.

The goal of taking such action could be destabilizing the PSUV leadership, says Günther Maihold, a political scientist at the Freie Universität Berlin. But so far, it doesn't look like that will happen, he says. Especially since, as both experts emphasize, US attacks could rally the deeply divided Venezuelan people behind their government again.

Escalating to negotiate?

Which could be why good Trump — parallel to his recent threats — has offered Maduro talks, according to US news site Axios, citing a US government source.

This comes as no surprise to Francisco Rodriguez, a political scientist from the University of Denver. "Instead, throughout his two administrations, Trump has consistently approached thorny domestic and foreign policy issues via a strategy he laid out in his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal: escalate to negotiate," he wrote a week ago in Foreign Affairs.

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst of Venezuela for the International Crisis Group, takes a similar view, saying that Trump's instinct tells him to negotiate rather than get involved in a war.

Still, further escalation seems almost inevitable because so far threats have been ineffective. If pressure doesn't work and there is no military response from the US, then the fleet would have to withdraw without fulfilling its mission and suffer the political fallout, Gunson says.

Viola Traeder (DW Spanish) contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.