Following the capture of then-President Nicolas Maduro by US special forces on the morning of January 3, Venezuela's then-Vice President Delcy Rodriguez condemned the operation as a kidnapping and announced that the country would resist the United States.

However, her tone changed quickly. Just one day later, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Rodriguez was "essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again." And indeed, the new interim president invited the US government that very same day to "work together on a cooperative agenda." Shortly afterwards, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled a three-phase plan for cooperation.

Phase 1: Consolidation of internal power

After 100 days in office, the acting president appears to be filling the power vacuum left by Maduro's ouster, and she also seems to be fulfilling Phase 1 of Washington's plan. On January 5, with the approval of the military and the Supreme Court, Delcy Rodriguez took the oath of office before the National Assembly, which has been chaired by her brother Jorge Rodriguez since January 2021.

Through a series of personnel changes, she has been consolidating her control over key institutions such as the judiciary, the military, and the administration. Rodriguez filled at least 12 top positions within a few weeks. The most prominent shift was Foreign Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez in March who had to step down, likely due to the debacle surrounding Maduro's capture. He was replaced by Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez, the former head of the notorious secret service agency SEBIN. Rodriguez had already appointed him as head of her personal guard in early January. A power struggle has not materialized and the Rodriguez government appears stable.

Does Caracas play by Washington's rules?

Despite numerous denials from Caracas, Venezuela's interim government is largely following Rubio's script. Even the tone toward Washington has changed.

In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País in early April, National Assembly President and the president's brother, Jorge Rodriguez, said they were working very professionally with the US government. While he asserted that they were not receiving specific directives from Washington, it stands out that the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is now praising cooperation with what it used to refer to as "US imperialists" — and even signalled that the government is now open for reforms.

Phase 2: Economic recovery

For more than a decade, the PSUV government under Maduro had failed to curb inflation to a manageable level, let alone achieve sustainable growth for the Venezuelan economy. Within weeks, Delcy Rodriguez has now paved the way for foreign private investors to enter the Venezuelan oil sector.

In doing so, she has raised hopes at home that Venezuela's troubled economy could stabilize. Meanwhile, the US rating agency Moody's sees the country as already having a "stable outlook." In late March, Rodriguez delivered a video message at an investor conference in Miami to attract foreign capital for investments in key sectors such as oil, construction, banking, and insurance, as well as the manufacturing industry.

Poverty is the most pressing problem

However shocking the US attack on Venezuela's sovereignty may have been for many people in the country and beyond, it didn't spark major national protests. Many Venezuelans are even glad that Maduro is gone, Juan Forero, South America Bureau Chief for the Wall Street Journal, told the US magazine Americas Quarterly, after returning from Venezuela in February. In his view, many Venezuelans were hopeful that things would get better.

In a mid-2025 survey by the US institute Gallup, 64% of respondents stated that the country's economic problems were their greatest concern, which is unsurprising given the hyperinflation that has raged since 2017. Last year, the rate stood at around 500% — meaning that 100 bolivars from a January 2025 paycheck were worth only 20 bolivars by the time Maduro was ousted. Depending on the measurement, between 50% and 80% of households lived in poverty last year.

According to Gallup, only 14% of those surveyed viewed the political situation itself as their number one problem. Just 1% cited the security situation as their top priority — in a country with one of the highest murder rates in the world.

Therefore, the government is well aware that "the most important thing right now is the economy," as Congress President and the president's brother, Jorge Rodriguez, emphasized in his interview with El País in early April. When asked about democratic elections, he said that they will happen eventually, but it was too early to say when or in what form.

Meanwhile, repression continues. According to figures from the organization Foro Penal, around 500 political prisoners have been released since January. But roughly the same number remain in detention.

"The reforms so far are not necessarily aimed at opening up and democratization, but rather at keeping the interim government in power indefinitely," Victor M. Mijares, a political scientist at the University of the Andes in Bogota, Colombia, told DW.

"At the moment, the PSUV would likely have little chance of winning new elections," he said, adding that the last election victory in mid-2024 was highly controversial. According to the opposition's tally, its candidate won by a large majority. "However, a noticeable economic recovery could change their chances," Mijares said.

Also the WSJ correspondent Forero believes that Delcy Rodriguez's government is playing for time, hoping that the United States — at the latest under a new president — might lose interest in Venezuela's democratization. After all, the US has already signalled its goodwill by easing sanctions.

Phase 3: Will the US push for elections?

However, political scientist Mijares has doubts that such a plan could work out. For one thing, some members of the US government take the fight against socialism in Latin America very seriously, especially Secretary of State Rubio, who is the son of Cuban exiles.

"Additional pressure comes from the US business community, particularly the oil industry, which insists on the rule of law in Venezuela," Mijares said, adding that for Donald Trump, the democratization of Venezuela serves as a kind of blueprint for a "slow but less costly regime change."

At the same time, he says, the Venezuelan government finds itself in a dilemma: "Rodriguez would have to establish a legal framework to attract the necessary capital inflows, which as a transitional government, it is effectively unable to do."

This article was originally written in German.