The world's wealthiest economies are crying out for foreign workers, despite rising anti‑immigration sentiment, particularly in the United States and Europe. Yet a little-discussed report released last month shows labor migration is falling globally, even as ageing societies face mounting shortages.

The decline began well before the reelection of Donald Trump, who campaigned last year on a promise to sharply curb immigration.

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which tracks global economic and social policy, work-related migration to its 38 member states dropped by more than a fifth last year (21%).

The OECD's International Migration Outlook 2025 report found the drop was driven less by demand than by rising political opposition to immigration and tighter visa regimes in other advanced economies. Temporary work migration continued to rise.

Decline driven by two countries

"Most of the ... decline in permanent labor migration was driven by policy changes in the United Kingdom and New Zealand," Ana Damas de Matos, senior policy analyst at the OECD, told DW. "In both cases, permanent labor migration remained above 2019 levels."

In New Zealand, the drop was tied to the end of a one‑off post‑pandemic residence pathway that had allowed more than 200,000 temporary migrants and dependents to settle permanently. The country's largest one-off residency scheme closed in July 2022.

Post-Brexit, the UK reformed the Health and Care Worker visa route, tightening employer eligibility and barring dependents, resulting in a sharp reduction in visa applications. The OECD singled out health care as a sector where curbs risk deepening labor shortages.

Seeta Sharma, a migration specialist who has advised the United Nations as well as India's national and state governments, warned that the UK's reforms, including a move to tighten eligibility for international students hoping to work after graduation, could backfire.

"The student‑to‑work pathway is now being curtailed," Sharma told DW. "When that happens, applications will slow, because Indians, for example, are not going to spend large sums on education abroad if there’s no clear return on investment."

The OECD report showed that India was by far the largest country of origin for migrant workers settling in its member countries at 600,000 last year, followed by China and Romania.

US curbs on high-skilled visas threaten tech sector

In the US, stricter caps on H‑1B visas — the main program that allows foreign professionals in fields like technology, engineering and medicine to work in the country — were introduced under the Biden administration. Trump has since substantially increased the visa cost for employers to $100,000 (€84,800), up from $2000-$5000. His broader agenda has focused on limiting permanent pathways.

Australia, meanwhile, raised salary thresholds for skilled visas, while Canada adjusted pathways for temporary workers, also contributing to the wider decline in job-related migration. Nordic countries also saw large declines, with Finland recording a 36% drop compared to the previous year.

In Germany, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's tighter immigration policies helped a 12% fall in permanent migration inflows last year, when 586,000 foreign workers entered the country. The number of people arriving on work visas was 32% lower than the previous year. These reforms have been expanded by his successor, Friedrich Merz's government.

Herbert Brücker, professor of economics at Berlin's Humboldt University, thinks the declines are storing up trouble for the German economy.

"For many years, Germany benefited from an average migration of 550,000 people per year," Brücker told DW. "We need migration to replace retiring workers. Without it, we cannot hold the labor supply stable."

Strong demand for migrants in Europe

Across the European Union, around two‑thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 were filled by non‑EU citizens, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), underscoring how dependent Europe has already become on migrant labor.

Globally, there were 167.7 million migrant workers in 2022, according to International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates. This accounted for 4.7% of the total global labor force. More than two-thirds of them (114.7 million) lived in high-income countries.

Despite last year's drop, global work-related migration remains above pre-pandemic levels. But the OECD report reveals how those inflows can be abruptly curbed by political resistance, stoked by fears over illegal migration, rather than economic demand, which remains at record highs.

Trump's second‑term agenda has amplified that dynamic, with executive orders enacted since he returned to office in January aimed at curbing both legal and illegal immigration. The Trump administration argues these are necessary to safeguard US workers and ensure a skills‑based system.

Temporary visas over permanent pathways

Temporary or seasonal labor migration held steady last year even as permanent inflows declined, according to the OECD report, reflecting governments' preference for short-term schemes they can expand or contract at will.

"The appetite is: 'Let's get in people when we want them and close the doors when we don't. But let’s not have these "different" people in our land permanently,'" Sharma lamented.

Seasonal and temporary worker programs remain in demand across Australia, Europe and North America, where employers in the agriculture, care and construction sectors have plugged gaps in their workforce. 

The OECD notes that temporary migration programs are increasingly used for technology and other high‑skilled workers, too.

Red tape keeps migrants in lower-skilled jobs

As well as attracting more work-based migrants, the OECD urged advanced economies to focus on better integrating them into the labor market. The club of advanced economies cited language training and access to social services as key requirements, along with the recognition of skills and qualifications to help foreign workers contribute fully in their host countries. Often, they're employed in much lower-skilled jobs than they trained for.

Brücker, who is also head of migration research at Germany's Institute for Employment Research (IAB), noted that reforms intended to make Europe's largest economy more attractive have not worked due to a slow and bureaucratic approval process.

"The recognition of degrees and vocational training takes years and that makes it difficult for skilled workers to come," he told DW. As a result, we are now short of around three million workers."

Policymakers are also being urged to create clearer pathways that allow temporary migrant workers to transition into permanent status, ensuring their skills are fully utilized and reducing labor shortages.

While Trump often speaks positively about the need for skills‑based migration, his first year back in the White House has been marked by efforts to dismantle these avenues, reinforcing the divide between economic need and political will.

Sharma noted that often-angry rhetoric by Trump and other right-wing politicians over immigration sends "shock waves" internationally, shaping perceptions in India and beyond.

"The story coming back is that this is an unfriendly country, where it’s tough to get a job … those narratives play a huge part in migration movements," Sharma told DW, adding that if the US continues to curb work-related immigration, it could lead to more illegal migrant flows.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler