In 2021, Europe relied on Russia for around 50% of its natural gas, most delivered by pipeline. But following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe moved quickly to limit this dependency and slashed demand by two-thirds within three years. 

At the same time, Europe has developed an unhealthy reliance on US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Dubbed "freedom gas" following Russia's invasion, the LNG is shipped in ever-higher volumes across the Atlantic via a network of new EU  terminals. 

By 2025, around 57% of LNG imports to the EU came from the US — around four times the 2021 levels. This is expected to rise to up to 80% by 2030, according to analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a global team of energy finance analysts. 

The US did not export any gas before 2016, as its reserves were kept for domestic consumption. It has since become the largest global supplier of LNG. 

US gas dependence 'contradicts' energy diversification and transition goals

While gas will remain part of the EU's energy transition, and most of Europe's supply comes from Norway via pipelines, an exponential rise in US LNG imports could scuttle plans for energy independence and security, say analysts. 

The IEEFA report argues that overreliance on American LNG "contradicts" the REPowerEU plan of 2022, which aims to end Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels by "saving energy, diversifying supplies and accelerating the clean energy transition." 

The gas surge from across the Atlantic also belies the EU goal of making energy cheaper.

"US LNG is the most expensive for EU buyers, but European companies keep signing contracts," said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead Europe energy analyst at the IEEFA and author of the report on the EU's rising energy dependence. 

These contracts include a deal by the newly established joint venture, Atlantic-See LNG, to supply US LNG through southeastern Europe, and potentially to Ukraine. The gas is to be shipped via Greek terminals through "Vertical Gas Corridor" pipelines in the region.

The Greek venture will meet with US officials on February 24 to secure up to 15 billion cubic meters of LNG annually for 20 years to supply central and eastern Europe, according to Reuters news agency. Atlantic-See LNG has already signed a 20-year deal with Venture Global, one of the biggest US suppliers of LNG to the EU. 

Back in 2023, German state-owned business Securing Energy for Europe — formerly Gazprom Germania — signed a 20-year contract with Venture Global to import millions of tons of LNG a year from its Louisiana LNG plants. 

EU dependence on US LNG growing

Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel said he was "grateful for the strong leadership of President Trump" and those "on both sides of the Atlantic who are encouraging further trade of American LNG." 

US President Donald Trump has championed his quest for global "energy dominance," and in July 2025, negotiated a EU-US trade deal that commits Europe to buy $750 billion (€629 billion) of US energy (LNG, oil, and nuclear) annually by 2028. 

"The US-EU energy deal has put pressure on Europe to buy more US energy," said Jaller-Makarewicz of the agreement that, when formalized, will increase the risk of "high-risk geopolitical dependency" on American LNG.  

In the words of the IEEFA report: "The deal effectively ties the EU's energy supply to one seller, risking energy security and jeopardising gas reduction plans."

Demand for US gas is also likely to increase when, in late 2027, the EU plans to completely ban ongoing Russian gas imports. 

Yet after the European Parliament in December approved the phase-out of gas and oil imports from Russia, experts noted that ending Russian imports alone will not guarantee diversification.

"Diversification cannot mean replacing one dominant supplier with another one," said Raffaele Piria, senior fellow at Berlin's Ecologic Institute, in a January policy brief. "Europe needs a clear definition of diversification and a strategy that reflects today's geopolitical realities." 

EU's gas about-face in wake of Trump-fueled tensions 

More recently, the US president's threat to impose tariffs on EU countries that don't comply with his demands to annex Greenland has prompted Brussels to rethink its reliance on US gas. 

"In these turbulent geopolitical times, Europe must stand strong and united — and choose independence. That means doubling down on clean, safe, home-grown energy," said the European Commission's Energy and Housing commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, at the North Sea Summit in Hamburg in late January. 

A "Joint Offshore Wind Investment Pact" was among several measures agreed at the summit aimed at securing independent and clean energy within the EU.

Jorgensen said in January that Europe should also source its gas from countries such as Canada, Qatar and Algeria.

"The future of energy in Europe could be changing route," noted Jaller-Makarewicz of the shifting headwinds. "If the EU keeps strong on the plans to replace gas consumption by clean energy, then gas demand will decrease." 

In this scenario, existing US LNG deals based on Memorandums of Understanding — formal agreements that are not legally-binding — might collapse, the energy expert explained.  

Meanwhile, over 120 European and international civil society groups sent a letter to EU leaders recently urging them to cancel negotiations for the US-EU trade deal that ties Europe to energy imports from across the Atlantic. 

The call to "reduce reliance on US fossil fuels in solidarity with those threatened by Trump's fossil-fueled imperialism"  follows strikes on Venezuela and territorial claims on Greenland. 

Edited by: Rob Mudge