Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's announcement that they would withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States has analysts worried that the move will further weaken ECOWAS and usher in greater instability.

The military leaders of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, all of whom came to power in recent coups, said in a joint statement on Sunday that they will leave the 15-member bloc "without delay," and accused the bloc of a lack of support and "inhumane" coup-related sanctions.

"ECOWAS promotes democratic values," said Burkina analyst Lassane Zorome. "So naturally, the first thing to do is to leave the body that puts pressure on them and draws attention to democratic principles."

'Political blow'

Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at the consultancy Development Reimagined, called the withdrawal a "political blow" to the region's most important political and economic bloc.

"These are states that are crucial to West African security, particularly in the Sahel region of West Africa," he said.

The withdrawal of the landlocked Sahel states will further "weaken" ECOWAS, said Fahiraman Kone, a Mali-based project manager for the Sahel at the Institute for Security Studies, an African think tank.

The Sahel, the vast semi arid region that stretches along the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, has become the global epicenter of terrorism. It accounted for 43% of world terrorism deaths in 2022.

And West Africa is already seeing a spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel to the relatively peaceful coastal states such as Togo, Benin and the Ivory Coast.

"The disintegration of political cooperation [through ECOWAS] and the weakening of responses against jihadist attacks will mean that there is a big risk for further insecurity in the region," Kone told DW.

It's the first time since ECOWAS was founded in 1975, nearly 50 years ago, that members are leaving in such a manner. ECOWAS said in a statement that the three countries were "important members of the community" and the bloc "remains committed to finding a negotiated solution to the political impasse."

Tense relationship

The three nations saw an escalation in tensions with ECOWAS following military coups in 2020 in Mali, in 2022 in Burkina Faso and last July in Niger. ECOWAS suspended the trio, with Niger and Mali facing heavy sanctions, in a bid to force them to return to democratic rule. The regional bloc also threatened military intervention in Niger following its coup.

But ECOWAS' tough stance seems to have only hardened the positions of the military-led nations, leading to a growing fault line within the regional bloc. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso even signed a mutual defense pact, the Alliance of Sahel States, last September. 

The threat of armed intervention was "grave mistake," said Eguegu. "ECOWAS can coerce, it can exert pressure, which it was doing with sanctions [against Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso]. But to then threaten the security and territorial integrity of these states, that was a fundamental miscalculation on ECOWAS' part."

Political analyst Gilles Yabi, the founder and president of WATHI, a West African citizen think tank, has a similar view.

The "severe economic sanctions" and the threat of military intervention in Niger have been "very counterproductive," Yabi told DW, causing ECOWAS' popularity with civilians to fall. "That made it possible for the current leadership of these countries to decide to withdraw."

He emphasized, however, that the decision to quit ECOWAS was made by military regimes that lack legitimacy.

What happens next? 

Mali and Burkina Faso said Monday that they had sent ECOWAS "formal notice" of their withdrawal from the bloc, with Niger expected to follow soon after.

According to the ECOWAS treaty, member states who wish to quit the bloc need to give its leadership one year's written notice, at the end of which "such a state shall cease to be a member of the community."

It is still unclear when the withdrawal will come into effect and what it will mean for the freedom of movement and goods to the three landlocked nations, who rely on ports in their ECOWAS neighbors for imports and exports. 

Togolese teacher Saro Assegnan, who works in Niger's capital, Niamey, told DW he was worried when he heard the announcement broadcast on state television.

"Will there be a hassle at the border? Are they going to introduce a visa system? How are we going to travel in this situation," he wondered.

Political analyst Yabi, however, believes there will be no risk to the movement of people within ECOWAS for at least 12 months. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger will have to continue to stay in the bloc until the withdrawal officially comes into effect.

"It's very unfortunate," he said, "that a … difficult situation might [deter] the long-term imperative of regional integration in a world where we need to have more integration rather than and less.

Charles Bako in Burkina Faso and Abdoulkarim Mahamadou in Niger contributed to this article.

Edited by: Keith Walker