Every Serbian media outlet, whether newspapers, TV stations or websites, has praised the military alliance between Hungary and Serbia signed in Belgrade earlier this month.

Shortly afterwards, the Republika Srpska, the Serb-run part of Bosnia also announced its intention to join the "new military alliance".

Serbian media, which operate under strict state control, portrayed this new "military pact" as a response to the recent military alliance between the NATO partners Croatia, Albania and Kosovo. The latter's independence remains unrecognized by Belgrade decades later. 

"It is particularly worrying" that "this military alliance was formed without consultation with Belgrade" criticized the Serbian Foreign Ministry. The agreement aimed to isolate Serbia and create "paramilitary structures" in Kosovo and was a "gross provocation", it said.

But what is that agreement between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo really about? Signed in March, it stipulates cooperation within the framework of the NATO Strategic Concept and the security policy of the European Union.

This includes a higher level of cooperation between the defense industries and the training of soldiers and command officers. Joint military exercises are also planned. The focus within the framework of the Euro-Atlantic integration is to defend against foreign cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.

Serbia feels threatened by this, despite Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic's assurance: "This memorandum of cooperation is not hostile in nature."

The trilateral agreement nevertheless fuels the decades-long national rivalries and animosities between Serbia and Croatia.

Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anusic said that "the times when Croatia had to ask Belgrade what it was allowed to do and how it had to act are over."

What have Belgrade and Budapest agreed on?

Meanwhile, the "historic military alliance" between Belgrade and Budapest turns out to be a political spin by Serbian media.

"There are no elements of a military alliance," Serbian military expert Aleksandar Radic told various media outlets.

The pompously announced deal merely comprises specific military cooperation projects under a framework agreement from 2023.

Even Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has backtracked since. "The goal is a military alliance", he said, explaining that the course towards that was now set.

Is there a risk of war?

Yet even without considering that new military cooperation — however vague it may be — the Western Balkans region has experienced a significant arms build-up over the past years.

Croatia, which has just reintroduced military service, has bought Rafale fighter planes from France and is negotiating the delivery of Leopard tanks.

Serbia, for its part, has also concluded a contract with Paris to buy such multi-role combat aircrafts and is purchasing weapons systems from Russia and China.

War, however, is unlikely in the immediate future, observers say.

In early April, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that it was not necessary to put the situation in the region on the agenda of the NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels. His predecessor Jens Stoltenberg had already said before that there was no direct military threat.

"There is little risk of a real war breaking out," Vuk Vukasanovic, an analyst at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, told DW. Despite armament, the countries have insufficient resources for such a conflict and, above all, the local elites would have to fear for their positions of power in the event of war.

Overwhelming NATO presence

NATO is strongly represented in the region. Apart from Kosovo, all of Serbia's neighboring countries and Bosnia and Herzegovina are members of the alliance.

The US operate a large military base in Kosovo, Camp Bondsteel.

The Romanian airbase Mihail Kogalniceanu near Constanta is currently being expanded at a cost of at least €2.5 billion ($2.74bn) for 10,000 soldiers.

A large naval base has long been planned in the port of Durres on the Albanian Adriatic coast.

This article was originally published in German.