According to the opposition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) can challenge President Bola Tinubu'sgrip on power at the 2027 general election in Nigeria.

The ADC coalition, led by former presidential candidate Peter Obi and ex-Vice President of Nigeria Abubakar Atiku, says it is uniting to address what they describe as the country's worsening economic condition under the Tinubu administration. Nigeria's opposition is reeling from defections of top leaders and politicians to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Aside from Obi and Atiku, the coalition includes former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi. 

"We are fighting for the soul of the country, that is what this coalition is about," Yunusa Tanko, a member of the new coalition and coordinator of Obi's so-called "Obidient" movement, told DW.

"The Nigerian system is in a bad state — there's hunger in the land, rising insecurity, and clear disdain for democratic values," Tanko said.

"Many true democrats believe the system must be rejigged. This coalition is a collective effort to fight for the soul of Nigeria and defend the essence of democracy. It's also about making sure hunger doesn't wipe away the people in the midst of plenty."

Nigeria has regularly held peaceful elections since the return of democracy in 1999, despite allegations of electoral fraud, political violence and corruption. 

Reaction from President Tinubu's allies

While supporters of the coalition remain optimistic of victory in the 2027 polls, Tinubu’s ruling APC dismissed the new party as a coalition of "retired politicians without electoral value." 

Binta Garba Massi, a former lawmaker and supporter of Tinubu, told DW: "Coalition in a democratic setting — this is healthy to me. But the process of trying to unseat an incumbent president is another issue." 

She cited the time when the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was in power,  the APC (which was then in opposition) had formed a coalition.

"But now... I think it's an entirely different ball game," she said.

Coalitions are not new in Nigerian politics. The country's opposition has tried this before. In 2015, the APC itself was born from a coalition that succeeded in defeating then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. That coalition broke the PDP's 16-year grip on power, leading to the election of then-opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari. However, observers note that the dynamics are significantly different now.

"I think it's too early to say if the coalition can make any real impact," Mallam Baba Yusuf, a political analyst, told DW. "If we consider the current political dynamics in Nigeria, it seems more like just another political gathering," Baba Yusuf explained, adding that President Tinubu and others in the APC have decades of experience in opposition and were able to unseat an incumbent in 2015.

"Their methodology, approach, and mindset were quite different from what we're seeing now. Unless the current opposition leaders significantly change their strategy, I don't see them making much of a dent."

Economic challenges deepen

Since taking office in May 2023, President Tinubu's government has implemented bold economic reforms—ending fuel subsidies and floating the naira—in an effort to attract foreign investment and restructure public finances.

A recent World Bank report stated that Nigeria's economy had recorded its largest growth in the past decade. 

However, Nigerians have been feeling the pinch; the cost of living has surged, and millions are struggling to afford basic necessities, including food, housing, and transportation.

For many grappling with inflation, joblessness, and rising insecurity, the coalition promises a new political vehicle — but its chances remain uncertain.

"As they are coalescing, the current administration is strategizing. There is insecurity in almost every part of Nigeria — is that the fault of the APC?" Garba Massi, a Tinubu ally, said. 

"Some of the people fighting the president today were helped by him to grow politically. But rest assured, APC is still standing strong and waxing stronger. At the end of the day, APC will clinch that seat in 2027 by the special grace of God."

Organizers of the ADC coalition say discussions are ongoing with a roadmap to register the party and present a single opposition presidential candidate in the 2027 election.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu and Cai Nebe

This article was updated on July 3 to reflect the launch of the ADC opposition coalition