After thousands of protesters demanded that the Awami League (AL) be banned in Bangladesh, the country's interim government decided to impose a ban on all activities of the party while a special tribunal probes its role in last year's deadly unrest.

While the AL has not been fully outlawed, the authorities have ordered a halt on all activities "including in cyberspace" under the Anti-Terrorism Act.

"This decision is intended to safeguard national security and sovereignty, protect the leaders and activists of the July Movement, and ensure the safety of plaintiffs and witnesses involved in the tribunal," interim government's law adviser Asif Nazrul said on Saturday after an emergency meeting of the council of advisers, headed by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus.

Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) was initially formed in 2009 during Sheikh Hasina's tenure to investigate and prosecute war crimes committed during the 1971 independence war. Under Yunus, the court is now looking into actions taken by the AL and its leaders during last year's unrest. Its prosecutors have also demanded Hasina's extradition from India.

Islamists also in favor of AL ban

The Awami League is Bangladesh's oldest political party. It led Bangladesh's 1971 independence war against Pakistan under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and then dominated the country's political life for decades. Sheikh Hasina, Mujibur Rahman's daughter and the party's president since 1981, was ousted last year amid violence surrounding a mass uprising, which is now referred to as the "July Movement." She is currently in exile in India and faces multiple criminal charges.

The anti-Hasina protesters have long called for the party to be banned and prosecuted for political violence. Recently, however, these calls have escalated into prolonged sit-ins in the capital, Dhaka. The new student-led National Citizens' party (NCP) spearheaded the push, which was also backed by some Islamist factions in the Muslim-majority country.

Senior AL politician Mohammad A. Arafat claims Muhammad Yunus is trying to "keep his unconstitutional regime in power and delay elections." Talking to DW from an unknown location, the former information minister said Yunus was trying to secure NCP's and Islamists' support by banning the former ruling party.

"The only way the Islamists can make their way into parliament is by banning AL," Arafat said.

Polarization to rise in Bangladesh

But Jasmin Lorch, senior researcher at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), believes that protesters forced Yunus' government into the ban after months of hesitation.

"It is extremely important that AL leaders [are held] responsible for the mass killings of summer 2024 and other severe human rights violations, such as enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings under Sheikh Hasina," she said.

"However, banning all of the AL's activities — and later potentially the party itself — is bound to severely enhance political polarization and will likely make it even more difficult for Bangladesh to break the recurring vicious cycle of political violence and repression," Lorch added. 

Should Awami League apologize for 2024 unrest? 

The AL has rejected calls to take responsibility for the violent crackdown under Hasina which claimed hundreds of lives.

"It is very clear that the AL's refusal to apologize for the summer 2024 massacres further enraged the victims and large parts of the public," Lorch told DW. 

"Similarly, it made it politically nearly impossible for the interim government to accommodate political participation by the AL," she added.

Political historiographer Mohiuddin Ahmed notes that Bangladeshi parties don't have the practice of accepting their mistakes.

"Bangladeshi political parties fear that accepting their own mistakes will end their political future. That's why they refrain from seeking apologies," he told DW.

And speaking to DW, AL's Arafat said his party was committed to "an independent investigation while it was in power and still stands" by that.

"Anyone responsible for breaking the law should be held accountable. However, there is no rule of law in Bangladesh at the moment and the [tribunal] is a political weapon, so there is no way for the truth to come out," Arafat, who also faces charges over last year's killings, said. 

No legal way to reform AL under the freeze

Bangladesh's interim government plans to conduct the country's general election by June next year. It remains unclear if AL's trial will end before the election and whether the party will be allowed to take part in it. 

Lorch believes that banning all of AL's activities may also limit opportunities for intra-AL reforms. 

"If all party activities are banned, in principle, this means that AL members and leaders would not even be allowed to convene meetings to discuss intra-party reforms or whether and in what form they should apologize for the 2024 massacre, if they wanted to," she told DW. "There is also the risk that focusing on the AL only will divert attention away from the role that the security forces, the DGFI, and the military played in enabling repression under Sheikh Hasina." 

'The trials are rigged from the start'

The German analyst points to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which advised against banning any parties and urged a process of national reconciliation combined with investigations and trials looking into last year's student-led protests.  

"I clearly think this would be the more promising path towards political stability and democracy," she said. "If the AL remains banned until the elections, this would also limit the competitiveness of the electoral process and exclude sympathizers of the AL, who still exist, from meaningful participation in the political process."

But Dhaka-based political historiographer Ahmed told DW that a new liberal and democratic faction may step in and court AL voters.

"The party doesn't seem to have any regrets. It's true that it has lots of voters. But, its absence in elections will split those voters and other political parties will compete to gain their support," Ahmed said.

Meanwhile, Mohammad A. Arafat said the AL party is not interested in fighting a legal battle against the ban. 

"The trials are rigged from the start, there is no chance of receiving justice," Arafat said. "The accused are being beaten up in the dock and even their lawyers are being slapped with false murder cases. These trials are a complete sham."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic