In Nepal, millions of people are still reeling from an anti-corruption rebellion led by the country's urban youth, which ousted the government led by Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli earlier this month.

Oli's power collapsed within mere days — so quickly, in fact, that some Nepalese now speculate that protesters must have had help from abroad. A rare congratulatory message from religious leader Dalai Lama further fueled the debate on social media.

Others affirm that the revolution was conducted by the Nepalese themselves.

"The Gen Z campaign is often compared to movements in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Syria," Kathmandu-based journalist Devendra Bhattarai wrote in a recent column.

"But it must not be forgotten that this is less the result of outside influence," he wrote, "and more a revolution born and nurtured by Nepali leaders here."

Political scientist Sucheta Pyakurel told DW that the government's ouster was a "revolution of mass frustration" generated by lack of opportunities and cronyism.

At the same time, she also pointed to a "correlation between sovereignty and external influence."

"As we lose our grip on both the state institutions and the market — with so many youths leaving for jobs abroad — external influence naturally grows," she said.

Nepal's international balancing act

Nepal, a Himalayan nation of nearly 30 million people wedged between India and China, has struggled with instability for many years.

Between the adoption of a new constitution in 2015 and the latest deadly unrest, the country has seen eight governments centered around the same three leaders: Oli, of CPN-UML; Sher Bahadur Deuba, of Nepali Congress; and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, of CPN (Maoist-Center).

Parts of Nepal's political scene, especially left-leaning and pro-monarchy forces, have repeatedly claimed that foreign powers such as India, the United States and the European Union are behind Nepal's frequent political shifts. China has only recently joined this line-up, as its traditional image of "quiet diplomacy" has waned.

Officially, Kathmandu pursues a "nonaligned foreign policy" — a principle established by King Prithvi, who united modern Nepal in 1768. A key element of this policy could be summed up as "friendship with all and enmity with none" to ensure diplomatic and developmental support from all sides, especially India and China.

Nepal also views the United States as its "third neighbor" because of the US's global dominance. In turn, India, China and the United States all have genuine stakes in Nepal and concerns regarding sudden shifts in the nation's politics.

Stuck between India and China

Nepal and India enjoy deep cultural, economic and security ties. India also shares a 1,751-kilometer (1,066-mile) open border with the smaller country.

Because of its geographic and cultural proximity, India experiences the immediate impact of instability in Nepal. Security is a prime concern, but India also seeks a reliable partner in Kathmandu to continue pursuing smooth relations. 

Nepal shares its northern border with China's Tibet Autonomous Region, and Beijing views instability in Nepal as a potential threat to Tibet's security.

China insists that Nepal uphold the "One China Policy" and prevent anti-China activities on its soil. Nepal has repeatedly reaffirmed this principle, recognizing Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan as integral parts of China.

Western stake in Nepal

In 2017, Nepal joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with the vision of multidimensional trans-Himalayan networks connecting two countries, including railways, roads, and digital and energy links.

"Nepal's foreign policy is all about its efforts to maintain a delicate balance with all three regional and global powers," Chandra Dev Bhatta, a geopolitical analyst, told DW.

"For Beijing, a stable and peaceful Nepal serves two purposes: safeguarding Tibet's security and rallying smaller states behind China's global policies," Bhatta said.

At the same time, Kathmandu also seeks to maintain ties with the US and its allies, including the EU, Japan, South Korea and Australia. These nations support Nepal's policy frameworks through government-to-government programs and civil society funding.

Recently, the United States provided a $530 million (€450 million) Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant to scale up Nepal's energy grids and road infrastructure. The MCC is seen as the Western countermeasure to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

How close was Oli to Beijing?

In recent years, Nepal has moved close to China diplomatically and economically.

Analysts point to China's apparent preference for Nepal's left-leaning parties — especially the Maoists and CPN-UML.

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Kathmandu in October 2019, left-leaning prime ministers and presidents have repeatedly visited China. Just days before the outbreak of deadly protests in Nepal, then-Prime Minister Oli attended a military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of China's victory over Imperial Japan.

During this visit, Oli raised Nepal's concerns about the agreement between India and China to open up economic and pilgrimage routes through Lipulekh Pass, a territory Nepal has historically claimed. On the sidelines, he also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Also, the Chinese side claims that Nepal expressed support for the Global Security Initiative (GSI) — still a loosely defined idea to form a security bloc spearheaded by China, in what would be a breach of Nepal's neutrality policy. However, the Nepali side has denied Oli endorsed the GSI.

Bhatta said Oli's strategy of leaning on China was "uncommon."

"Since our engagement is greater with India and the West, our strategic tilt toward China could be viewed unfavorably," he said.

Japan was the first nation to congratulate the regime change in Nepal, hinting at Tokyo's displeasure with Oli's diplomatic course.

Karki's government still an unknown 

The interim government, led by former Supreme Court Justice Sushila Karki, was also warmly welcomed by the international community, including India, China, the US, the EU and the UN.

During a phone call with Karki last week, India's Modi reaffirmed his country's "steadfast support for her efforts to restore peace and stability." In turn, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing "respects the development path chosen independently by the people of Nepal."

The interim government is currently focused on organizing elections that would see it hand power to an elected cabinet. It is therefore too early to predict how the interim leaders would shape ties with global and regional powers.

Indra Adhikari, a board member of Nepal's Policy Research Institute, said there were voices claiming credit for Nepal's political shift in various power corridors.

She cautioned that "Nepal should refrain from deviating from its foreign policy mantra of nonalignment and falling into a geopolitical trap."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic