By indicting two former Trump campaign officials and getting a guilty plea from a third associate, the independent probe into Russian election meddling has entered a new phase. Here's how it will affect the presidency.
Image: Getty Images/C. Somodevilla
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How dangerous are the indictments for US President Donald Trump?
It is important to note that the indictments against the former manager of Trump's presidential campaign, Paul Manafort, and another former campaign associate, Rick Gates, are not directly linked to the Trump presidential campaign and the president. It is also important to state that Manafort and Gates are presumed to be innocent until proven guilty.
Having said that, the 12-count-indictment against Manafort and Gates which include charges of money laundering, failure to report foreign bank accounts and failure to report working as a foreign agent for a pro-Russian Ukrainian political party "reveals strong ties to Russia and financial motives to assist Russia," said Lisa Kern Griffin, a law professor at Duke University.
And because three of the charges against Manafort include the period he served as Trump's campaign manager — contrary to what Trump tweeted — there is at least a chronological connection between the Manafort case and the Trump campaign.
Still, Trump's first reaction was likely relief that the indictments were not directly campaign-related, said Michael Gerhardt, a constitutional law professor at the University of North Carolina. And should the case go on trial and the defendants be acquitted, the danger the issue poses for the Trump presidency would be greatly reduced, said Peter M. Shane, a law professor at Ohio State University.
But assuming, as the scholars tend to, that this is likely just the first major step in Mueller's widening probe into Russian election meddling and possible ties between the Trump campaign and Moscow, then President Trump has reason to be worried.
"This is very threatening", said Professor Shane. That's because even while not directly linked to the Trump campaign, the indictments and the guilty plea convey a clear message to others who may be in Mueller's legal crosshairs.
"It sends a strong signal to all potential witnesses and potential defendants that Mueller is going to proceed without fear of the external political noise and he is going to charge everyone for whom the facts support a charge", said Professor Kern Griffin. "Everyone in the orbit of the Russian connections to the campaign has reason to be concerned."
What's more, unlike the indictments against Manafort and Gates, the indictment against Papadopoulos, albeit a lower level campaign aide, does assert a direct Russia link.
According to the document, Papadopoulos tried to facilitate a contact with a "professor" with ties to the Russian government and met with a "female Russian national." The focus of at least one of their conversations was "thousands of emails" allegedly in the possession of the Russian government containing "dirt" on electon rival Hillary Clinton.
A timeline of the Russia investigation
Allegations of collusion with the Kremlin have dogged Team Trump since the 2016 election campaign. DW takes a look at how special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation unfolded.
Image: Reuters/L. Downing
2013: Mr. Trump goes to Russia
June 18, 2013. Donald Trump tweeted: "The Miss Universe Pageant will be broadcast live from MOSCOW, RUSSIA on November 9. A big deal that will bring our countries together!" He later added: "Do you think Putin will be going - if so, will he become my new best friend?" October 17, 2013 Trump tells chat show host David Letterman he has conducted "a lot of business with the Russians."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Prokofyev
September 2015: Hacking allegations raised
An FBI agent tells a tech-support contractor at the Democratic National Committee it may have been hacked. On May 18, 2016, James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, says there were "some indications" of cyberattacks aimed at the presidential campaigns. On June 14, 2016 the DNC announces it had been the victim of an attack by Russian hackers.
Image: picture alliance/MAXPPP/R. Brunel
July 20, 2016: Kislyak enters the picture
Senator Jeff Sessions — an early Trump endorser who led his national security advisory committee — meets Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and a group of other ambassadors at a Republican National Convention event.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
July 22, 2016: Assange thickens the plot
Julian Assange's WikiLeaks publishes 20,000 emails stolen from the DNC, appearing to show a preference for Hillary Clinton over Senator Bernie Sanders.
Image: Reuters/N. Hall
July 25, 2016: Cometh the hour, Comey the man
The FBI announces it is investigating the DNC hack saying "a compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously."
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
November 8, 2016: Trump elected
Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. On November 9, the Russian parliament burst into applause at the news.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
November 10, 2016: Team Trump denies Russia link
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov says there "were contacts" between the Russian government and the Trump campaign during the election campaign. The Trump campaign issues a firm denial.
Image: Imago/Itar-Tass
November 18, 2016: Flynn appointed
Trump names General Michael Flynn as his national security adviser. The former Defense Intelligence Agency chief was a top foreign policy adviser in Trump's campaign. Flynn resigned in February after failing to disclose full details of his communication with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
Image: Reuters/C. Barria
January 26, 2017: Yates - 'The center cannot hold'
Acting Attorney General Sally Yates tells White House counsel Don McGahn that Flynn made false statements regarding his calls with Kislyak. On January 30, Trump fires Yates for refusing to enforce his travel ban, which was later blocked by federal courts.
Image: Getty Images/P. Marovich
March 2, 2017: Sessions recuses himself
Trump says he has "total confidence" in Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions announces he will recuse himself from any investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: Getty Images/S.Loeb
March 20, 2017: FBI examines Trump-Kremlin links
FBI Director James Comey confirms before the House Select Committee on Intelligence that the FBI was investigating possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/J. S. Applewhite
May 9, 2017: Trump sacks Comey
In a letter announcing the termination, Trump writes: "While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst/K. Lamarque
May 17, 2017: Mueller appointed special counsel
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appoints former FBI Director Robert Mueller to look into Russia's interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J.S. Applewhite
August 2017: FBI seizes documents from Manafort
Shortly after Mueller convenes a grand jury for the investigation, the FBI seizes documents from one of Paul Manafort's properties as part of a raid for Mueller's probe. The former Trump campaigner manager stepped down in August 2016 after allegations surfaced that he had received large payments linked to Ukraine's former pro-Russian government.
Image: Imago
September 2017: Trump Jr.'s talks to Senate committee
Donald Trump Jr. tells the Senate Judiciary Committee he has not colluded with a foreign government. The closed-door interview relates to his June 2016 meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, which was also attended by his brother-in-law, Jared Kushner, and then-campaign manager Paul Manafort. Trump Jr.’s emails, however, suggest the meeting was supposed to produce dirt on Clinton.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/K. Willens
October 2017: Internet giants allege Russian interference
Facebook, Twitter and Google reportedly tell US media they have evidence that Russian operatives exploited platforms to spread disinformation during the 2016 US presidential election. The three companies are appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee in November 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Lei
July 2018: Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Helsinki for their first-ever summit. During the trip, Trump publically contradicts the findings of US intelligence agencies who concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
November 8, 2018: Sessions resigns as attorney general
Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigns from his post, under reported pressure from Trump. The president then appoints a critic of the Mueller probe as his successor, but later nominates William Barr to be the next attorney general in December 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Brandon
November 29, 2018: Former Trump lawyer pleads guilty
Trump's former long-time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleads guilty to lying to Congress about discussions in 2016 on plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The FBI raided his home earlier that year in April. He would later be sentenced to three years in prison. In 2019, he tells Congress that Trump is a "racist" and a "con man."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
January 2019: Trump associate Roger Stone arrested
Roger Stone, a longtime Trump associate and Republican operative, is arrested at his home in Florida for lying to Congress about having advance knowledge of plans by WikiLeaks to release emails from the Democratic Party that US officials say were stolen by Russia.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Photo/L. Sladky
March 13, 2019: Manafort sentenced to prison
Manafort is found guilty of conspiracy charges and handed an additional sentence, bringing his total prison sentence to 7.5 years. In August 2018, a court in Virginia found him guilty of eight charges, including tax and bank fraud. He also pleaded guilty to two conspiracy counts.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/D. Verkouteren
March 22, 2019: Mueller ends Russia probe
Special counsel Robert Mueller submits a confidential 448-page report on the findings of his investigation to the US Justice Department. The main conclusions of the report are made public when they are given to Congress. A redacted version of the report is released to the public on April 18, though Democrats call for the full report to be released.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/C. Dharapak
March 24, 2019: Trump declares 'exoneration'
The final report concluded that no one involved in Trump's 2016 election campaign colluded with Russia. Attorney General William Barr said the report provided no evidence that Trump obstructed justice, but stopped short of fully exonerating the president. Reacting to the findings, Trump described the probe as an "illegal take-down that failed," and said there was "complete and total exoneration."
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
May 1, 2019: Barr testifies
In late March, Mueller writes a letter expressing concerns over the way Barr portrayed his report. The attorney general says the special counsel's letter was "a bit snitty" while testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee in May. Barr then cancels a subsequent appearance before the House Judicial Committee, citing "unprecedented and unnecessary" hearing conditions.
Image: Getty Images/A. Wong
July 24, 2019: Mueller light
Robert Mueller's congressional testimony on the Russia probe was again inconclusive. He sometimes struggled with his answers or avoided queries. To the Democrats frustration he appeared to do little to give any encouragement to the notion that President Trump could be impeached, though he did suggest he might be prosecuted for obstruction of justice crimes after he leaves the White House.
Papadopoulos' guilty plea is also a reminder to others potentially in Mueller's crosshairs to consider whether they may not want to cut a deal to provide valuable information to authorities in exchange for going free or for a more lenient sentence. The information provided in these initial cases can then be used to build additional indictments.
"There is no doubt that these prosecutions do give increased leverage over the people who have been indicted in terms of their providing information", said Shane. "It is clear that this not the end of the investigation."
"There will be more defendants charged," predicts Duke's Kern Griffin.
Can President Trump fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller?
Yes, he can. Given that Trump has repeatedly called the probe into Russian meddling in the US presidential election and the Trump campaign a "witch hunt" and that he fired former FBI chief James Comey, who had alleged in a memo that the president had asked him to close the Russia investigation, which Comey would not do, it is not a stretch to wonder whether Trump would be considering firing Mueller to end his Russia investigation.
The best legal option for him to do so would be via the Justice Department. Since Attorney General Jeff Sessions has recused himself from the matter because he is implicated in it himself, Trump could ask Sessions' deputy Rod Rosenstein to dismiss Mueller. But firing Mueller is not easy since it would require him to establish a "good cause" as to how he violated the Justice Department's prosecution policy, said Shane. Should Rosenstein refuse to dismiss Mueller, Trump could fire him and essentially continue with this process until he finds someone willing to do so, he added. But firing Mueller would surely cause a major political firestorm and probably lead to legal challenges.
"If he tries to fire Mueller on his own it will be on the constitutional basis that could be disputable," said Michael Gerhardt, constitutional law professor at University of North Carolina. The "disputable" constitutional foundation that Gerhardt refers to is called "unitary executive theory" and stipulates in a nutshell that the constitution gives the president complete authority to fire anyone in the executive branch. It is highly contentious among legal scholars; should Trump fire Mueller directly based on this principle, the move would surely be challenged in the courts.
Can President Trump pardon his former campaign manager Manafort and other aides?
Yes, he can. Not only can he pardon Manafort and any other defendants for any federal offenses committed, it is pretty well established, noted the scholars, that he can even issue a presidential pardon before a trial has begun.
But the reported collaboration of Mueller's team with New York state attorney general Eric Schneiderman's office on the Manafort case could blunt the benefit of any potential presidential pardon. That's because while the president can pardon for federal offenses, he can't pardon state offenses. And several of the charges filed against Manafort and Gates — such as money laundering — could be prosecuted under state law as well. So should Trump issue a pardon, then Manafort and Gates could be charged under New York state law.
While pardoning Manafort and Gates would thus appear to have a limited impact, they would trigger a major backlash. But that still does not mean that Trump wouldn't do it.
"If he can pardon Sheriff Arpaio, he can likely pardon Manafort," said UNC's Gerhardt.
Asked about the likely steps President Trump and his team would take now next after his former campaign manager has been indicted, Duke's Lisa Kern Griffin summed up the legal scholars sentiment like this.
"What happens in TrumpWorld defies the logic of past political actions and similar investigation."
