Up until election day on November 5, Donald Trump, the former — and soon-to-be next — president of the United States faced the possibility of spending years in prison. But his return to the White House in 2025 means several court cases, in addition to a guilty verdict handed down in a New York court for falsifying business records, will most likely be set aside.

Changes in the status of the cases against Trump are largely due to a decision by the Supreme Court ruling that presidents have broad immunity from prosecution for official acts taken while in office. That judgment sent prosecutors in at least two cases back to the drawing board to determine whether they had a chance of success. During his first term as president, Trump appointed three justices to the Supreme Court, giving it a six to three conservative majority. 

Additionally, since Department of Justice policy says a sitting president cannot be tried in federal cases, the prosecutor of a pair of federal cases against Trump is now winding down his investigations. 

What are the cases against the incoming president?

Trump faces four criminal indictments: two at the federal level brought by Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith, one in the state of New York and another in the state of Georgia.

Only the New York trial has reached a verdict. There, a jury convicted Trump in June on 34 felony counts in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to adult film actor Stormy Daniels. Judge Juan M. Merchan has put the case on hold until at least November 19 to allow counsel on both sides to consider their next steps following the election result.

Trump has also been embroiled in civil cases.

He was found liable for sexual abuse in two civil defamation suits brought by journalist E. Jean Carroll, which awarded her $88.4 million (€83.6 million) total in damages. Trump has appealed both verdicts.

He has also appealed a civil fraud verdict requiring him and his companies to pay $454 million in penalties, following a case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Certainly for the federal cases, and potentially also the state cases, the wheels are set to grind to a halt.

"At least for the next four years, it seems quite likely that the trials will in some way be stopped or possibly suspended," Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, told DW.

2 federal cases being wound down

The Department of Justice maintains a policy of not prosecuting a sitting president. That same policy meant Trump wasn't indicted following the release of the Mueller report in 2019, which investigated allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and ties to the first Trump electoral campaign.

Smith, who has been leading the federal prosecutions, is now reportedly winding the cases down.

But the policy may not apply to already-indicted incoming presidents. That view is held by Claire Finkelstein, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, and Richard Painter, a former chief White House ethics lawyer during the George W. Bush administration.

The pair wrote in the Southern California Law Review last month that, as Trump was charged prior to becoming president for a second time, the Department of Justice could continue its prosecutions against him. In reality though, Finkelstein acknowledges it is unlikely. 

"I think the two federal cases will be in any event withdrawn," Finkelstein told DW. "As a matter of law, they need not be."

One federal case, where Trump was indicted on 37 counts in June 2023 for "felony violations of our national security laws" and "participating in a conspiracy to obstruct justice," was dismissed by Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon in July 2024 on grounds that Smith was unconstitutionally appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Smith has appealed the ruling, where the request to revive the case is still pending. 

The other, being heard in the District of Columbia by Judge Tanya Chutkan, relates to Trump's attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The Supreme Court's immunity ruling sent Smith's team back to the drawing board and, again, meant the trial would not be finalized before the election.

Trump's New York 'hush money' conviction due for sentencing

The verdict reached in Trump's "hush money" trial means he faces potential jail time. But there is no guarantee sentencing will proceed now that Trump has been reelected.

Judge Merchan has halted proceedings until at least November 19 to allow prosecutors to give their view of what to do in light of the Supreme Court's immunity ruling and the former and future president's election win. 

"If there is to be a sentence imposed in this case, I'd be shocked if it actually turned out to be prison time, though the 34 felony counts of which he was convicted entitle a judge to impose [that sentence]," said Finkelstein.

"More likely, there would be a fine or probation imposed, and whether that would be carried out now or as part of a suspended sentence would be anybody's guess."

Georgia racketeering case still ongoing

Trump and 18 co-conspirators were charged in a racketeering case for attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election results in the state of Georgia.

But the case has been embroiled in legal wrangling for over a year, and the prosecution has been sidetracked by ongoing attempts to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis for an alleged improper relationship with a prosecutor she appointed to the case, Nathan Wade.

"For the Georgia prosecutor's office to go up against a sitting president all by its lonesome, especially given the problems that have occurred in that office, is frankly a very intimidating prospect, so I can imagine if Fani Willis did not want to do that," said Finkelstein.

Trump has advantage after election win

Presidents have the power to pardon offenders for federal crimes, and legal scholars have debated whether Trump could exercise this in his own interest.

He likely won't need to trouble himself with that question if the Department of Justice ceases its prosecutions.

The status of the state cases — where presidential pardons do not apply — is perhaps more ambiguous.

But Posner echoed Finkelstein's skepticism that Trump will be penalized.

"It's quite inconceivable that the judge [Merchan] would order him to go to jail, but he might fine Trump or impose some other punishment," he said.

"The Georgia case […] has been stumbling along for a long time and I imagine it'll just be suspended, that the courts will rule that it doesn't make sense to prosecute a sitting president."

Could cases be resume after Trump's second term?

As Trump frequently reminded his supporters on the campaign trail and in his victory speech, there will not be any more election night parties from him as, constitutionally, a president can only serve two terms.

That leaves open the possibility that, if these cases are put on ice — rather than stopped altogether — they could resume upon his departure from office. 

"If they file for a stay of proceedings, then the cases could be resurrected," said Finkelstein.

"Ironically, they might see that policy [of not prosecuting a president] as a saving grace because it would give them the chance to resurrect the cases later, if a judge were inclined to stay the proceedings.

"I'm assuming that what's going on is that the Justice Department is thinking all this through very carefully and deciding how it wants to proceed."

But then, there's the politics of the matter, and as Posner pointed out, there may be little appetite to reopen these matters when Trump leaves the White House again. At 82, he will be the oldest departing president in US history.

"He's going to be old," said Posner. "It seems very possible that the government, whether it's controlled by Democrats or Republicans, will think it's just not worth it to continue these prosecutions."

Edited by: J. Wingard