Given how strongly the Kremlin is opposed to any suggestion of NATO membership for Ukraine, it felt like a surprise when Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country wouldn't be opposed should Ukraine join the  EU. 

"As for Ukraine's membership of the EU, we have never objected to this," Putin said while visiting China. "As for NATO, this is another issue."

Observers were quick though to note that Putin was likely trying to appear as a peacemaker to US President Donald Trump.

The statement, they say, was also aimed at playing for time since EU membership can take years or even decades while joining NATO is quicker and offers firmer security guarantees.

 

Why is Russia okay with Ukraine's EU membership?

In 2013 when Russia-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych suspended the signing of an association agreement with the EU, Ukraine erupted in widespread protests.

They accused Yanukovych of yielding to Russian pressure and deliberately halting Ukraine's integration with the EU to keep it in the Kremlin's sphere of influence.

A year later, Ukraine signed the association agreement, but many suspected then as now that Russia has never wanted the Ukrainian government to move closer to a democratic Europe.

George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, says Putin's surprise statement was likely a ruse to secure an international commitment against Ukraine's membership in NATO while seeking to occupy all of Donbas.

Russia currently occupies 88% of Donbas and the Financial Times reported that Putin has told Trump he would freeze the contact line once Ukraine conceded it all of it.

He thinks a significant factor is "pragmatism" since the Russian military is undermanned and undersupplied. "The Russian military  has already shown that it cannot conquer all of Ukraine."

Moreover, Putin might be worried about dealing with the European members of NATO who are  "revitalizing their withered military industries and pledging to build up their combat capabilities for the first time in decades."

Beebe argues that Putin probably recognizes that a willingness to live with Ukraine's potential membership in the EU is a "necessary price" for avoiding such a scenario and gaining terms in a future peace deal.

"This is part of a longer term bargaining process," Rafael Loss, security fellow with the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW. 

"When everyone agrees that NATO membership is off the table (for Ukraine) he can chip away at the EU enlargement process through his allies in the bloc," such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. 

No to NATO, yes to the EU

Russia has long seen NATO as a threat to its security despite repeated assertions by NATO members that it is a defensive alliance.

"NATO has a different place in Russian psyche," said Etienne Soula, an acting manager for Europe & fellow with the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) with the German Marshall Fund (GMF). "It doesn't take the EU as a serious military problem because European allies need the US  to be fully operational,"

Besides, NATO membership is a relatively quicker process than joining the EU which requires aspirants to unleash a slew of reforms and align laws and practices with the EU.

"Putin knows the EU process is drawn out and offers him ample time and opportunity to meddle through Fico and Orban, and slow down the process," Loss added. 

"He is dangling a carrot (of EU membership) for useful idiots in the west, a term Soviet intelligence uses for people who buy into the propaganda easily," Loss said. "Russians are good at floating diplomatic proposals with no intention of actually negotiating them." 

Beebe wrote that Putin must have anticipated that Trump would press its European partners to hasten the accession process – knowing it can still take years if not decades to complete.

EU membership: An insufficient security guarantee? 

Aside from what Russia might or might not object to, Ukraine has its own priorities, and reliable security guarantees are currently top of the list. 

"The moment the war ends, Russia will double down on hybrid activities in Ukraine," Soula warned. "Absent some degree of security guarantees – by that I mean US assurances – EU membership rings hollow."

While the EU has a mutual defense clause that offers protection and support to members, experts think that without US support, Europe remains vulnerable.

Loss added that an EU membership was part of the package but security guarantees should be such that they would effectively deter Russia from attacking again.

"Putin has not made any concessions, he is still opposed" to a potential future EU membership of Ukraine, Loss explained.

"This is his tactical maneuvering to buy time, avoid US sanctions, and invade again."

Edited by: Andreas Illmer