In the shadow of a devastating high-rise apartment fire that has claimed more than 150 lives, Hong Kong is preparing to elect a new city parliament, known as the Legislative Council (LegCo), in a vote set for Sunday.

Approximately 4.5 million Hong Kong residents will be able to vote for the legislative body of the former British colony. The parliament plays an important role within Hong Kong's system of government, primarily in approving the budget.

However, only 20 seats in the 90-member parliament are elected by direct vote. In ten constituencies, the first two candidates who receive the most votes are elected directly to the LegCo.

The other 70 seats are appointed by pro-Chinese committees. Thirty of these are delegated by socially relevant groups such as finance, trade unions, and tourism, and another 40 by an electoral commission. This process is enforced by electoral regulations.

Beijing vetting Hong Kong's leadership

One thing is already certain: Just like the outgoing assembly, the new Hong Kong parliament will have no real opposition.

After new election laws handed down by China in 2021 the wake of pro-democracy protests, Legco is set up for "patriots only," a euphemism for lawmakers loyal to Beijing.

Voters have since grown more apathetic, and analysts expect a low turnout on Sunday. Four years ago, turnout in the legislative vote  was just over 30%. 

Hong Kong's electoral system is the result of a compromise agreed upon by China and the United Kingdom during the handover in 1997.  The agreement with the UK states: "One country, two systems – Hong Kong will be administered by Hong Kongers with a high degree of autonomy from Beijing."

Since Hong Kong was returned to China, however, Beijing has been actively shaping the political realities according to its own interests. The central government in Beijing does not tolerate any voices or political actions aimed at establishing a Western-style democratic order in the administrative region. Most of the candidates running have been pre-selected by Beijing.

John Lee was the only candidate in the 2022 election for the last chief executive. Beijing considers the former police chief and hardliner to be a "patriot." Non-patriots are not allowed to run, according to the recently amended election law.

National security law puts a stop on pro-democracy efforts

In the years after the 1997 handover, Hong Kong maintained a diverse political landscape. One political current was promoting pro-Beijing policies, while a second faction was made up of parties leaning towards Western-style democracy. The latter alliance was also in favor of direct and universal elections for the chief executive and Legco.

Ultimately, Beijing stepped in and clamped down on large-scale pro-democracy movements, including the one seen in 2019. The Chinese People's Congress in Beijing subsequently passed a "national security law" for Hong Kong.

Since 2020, this law determines punishment for offenses defined as "sedition," "subversion," and "collusion with foreign forces." In practical terms, anyone in Hong Kong who has had contacts with foreign governments, parties, or government-affiliated foundations could be prosecuted.

Notably, Hong Kongers are also no longer allowed to hold a memorial service for the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, which includes a march of mourners.

Foreign activists close their doors

Ironically, the security law was imposed as a replacement for a 2019 bill by the Hong Kong government that sparked the pro-democracy protests. The now-scrapped bill would have allowed Hong Kong suspects to be extradited to the Chinese justice system. The initiative failed after months of street protests and had to be withdrawn.

Under the new and more strict national security law, however, Hong Kong officials report receiving over 900,000 criminal complaints thus far.

With any links to the outside world placed under scrutiny, many international organizations have left Hong Kong in a hurry and closed their regional offices, including the human rights organization Amnesty International and the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

Hong Kong's disappearing democrats

By summer 2025, more than 300 suspects had been prosecuted under the national security law. Almost half of them were found guilty and sent to jail, including pro-democracy leader Joshua Wong and media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Others, such as former LegCo member Nathan Law and activist Frances Hui, went into exile.

The Hong Kong police are currently searching for these dozens of suspects, offering a reward of up to 1 million Hong Kong dollars (approximately €110,000) for each of them.

"I knew I could go to prison for trying to make a difference, but the extent was greater than I had imagined," said "Kelly," a pro-democracy activist.

She is now 18 years old. In 2021, while  still a minor, she was arrested for "conspiracy to incite subversion" and "conspiracy to manufacture explosives" and spent four years in prison. Now, she is free and back in the city she no longer recognizes. "Everything feels strange," she told DW.

End of Hong Kong Democratic Party

Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement has never recovered from the crackdown on the protest movement and the national security law in 2020. The largest opposition party, the Hong Kong Democratic Party, was forced to dissolve in April 2025, 31 years after its founding.

"Following the introduction of the national security law and electoral reforms, the party's ability to act was severely restricted.," Stephan Ortmann, political scientist at Hong Kong Metropolitan University, told DW.

"Its members were arrested and its remaining efforts were undermined by the Chinese government's increasing control over the political landscape, reflecting the dwindling scope for promoting liberal democracy in Hong Kong," he added.

Hong Kong flies high as Asia's finance hub

In 1997, China also promised that Hong Kong would retain its capitalist system for 50 years

And while prospects for true democracy remain bleak in the city, Beijing remains keen on strengthening its role as an international financial hub. Chinese stock corporations like to list themselves on the Hong Kong stock exchange to gain access to international capital markets.

The "Greater Bay Area" project, which encompasses the region around the Pearl River estuary in southern China, aims to form a more cohesive economic whole with Hong Kong and cities in the neighboring province of Guangdong.

"In recent years, Beijing has moved to connect Hong Kong more to the mainland," analysts Lindsay Maizland und Clara Fong at the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a recent study.

Guangdong is already China's strongest economic province measured by gross domestic product.

"Many firms and investors are betting that this increased connectivity will boost the amount of wealth flowing from the mainland into Hong Kong," the authors wrote.

This article was translated from German