The third and final round of Myanmar's election is scheduled to take place on Sunday, with the outcome already a foregone conclusion. 

Entire areas of Myanmar have been excluded because the ruling junta cannot guarantee security amid the country's ongoing civil war, which has been raging since the military seized power in a February 2021 coup.

The junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 86 of 100 contested seats in parliament's lower house in the second phase of voting held on January 11, according to figures reported by state broadcaster MRTV citing the Union Election Commission.

The UDSP, which has 182 seats from the combined first and second phases of the election, the Associated Press reported, is expected to dominate the remaining ballots in Sunday's third phase.

Under the military-drafted constitution, the armed forces automatically hold a quarter of parliamentary seats and keep control of key ministries.

Election 'not in line' with EU standards

For the junta, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, the vote is aimed at conferring domestic legitimacy and pressuring foreign governments, especially China and fellow Southeast Asian states, to accept the outcome and normalize relations with the junta.

However, the absence of real opposition amid the ongoing war has cast doubt on whether the vote can deliver stability or legitimacy.

"The elections are not in line with international standards," an EU spokesperson told DW.

"The EU considers that the ongoing violence, restrictions on fundamental freedoms, mass detention, exclusion of key political actors, as well as the ongoing armed conflict in Myanmar, have created an environment in which elections cannot be free, fair, inclusive, and credible," they added.

Myanmar's last meaningful national vote was in 2020, when the pro-democracy National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory. Within weeks, the military seized power, detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior NLD figures, and annulled the result.

Resistance to the junta's power grab escalated into a nationwide civil war, now in its fifth year, and there is little sign the elections will end it.

According to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, a group of independent international experts, the junta controls less than one fifth of the country's territory.

Most opposition parties, including the NLD, have been deregistered and barred from contesting, and critics of the vote have received decades-long prison terms.

Wouter Beke, chair of the European Parliament's delegation for relations with the countries of Southeast Asia, told DW that Brussels will continue to express serious concern and to stand with Myanmar's people.

"Myanmar remains a crucial test of our commitment to international law and democratic principles," he said.

Sanctions locked in, legitimacy denied

The EU has consistently rejected the military takeover and the political process built around it. Since 2021, it has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on officials and junta-linked entities, alongside an arms embargo.

Kristina Kironska, of Palacky University Olomouc in the Czech Republic and an expert on the EU's policy on Myanmar, noted that EU sanctions have already been renewed and remain in effect until April, beyond the election period.

"This suggests that Brussels does not expect the elections to produce a political opening warranting policy reassessment, which leaves little room for an immediate post-election shift in EU policy," she told DW.

However, Brussels has avoided broad trade sanctions, keeping Myanmar in the Everything But Arms (EBA) preferential trade scheme that grants unilateral duty-free, quota-free access for all exports except arms and ammunition to the EU.

Exports to the bloc rose from €2.8 billion ($3.2 billion) in 2019 to €4.3 billion ($5 billion) in 2022, although they have fallen in recent years.

"After the junta announces the results, the EU should respond with a clear and unified political rejection, making explicit that these polls confer no legitimacy on the military regime," U Linn Thant, the envoy to the Czech Republic of the National Unity Government (NUG), told DW.

Formed in 2021 by ousted lawmakers and civil groups, the NUG is calling for a new federal democracy that would grant more authority to ethnic minority regions.

"Importantly, the EU should continue to align with the position already taken by the European Parliament and many international partners: that Myanmar's crisis cannot be resolved through a staged election, but only through a genuine democratic transition," Thant added.

Junta good enough for the Trump administration? 

The bigger uncertainty is whether other countries, like the US under President Donald Trump, will gradually treat the post-election order as "good enough" for engagement.

The US Department of Homeland Security announced in November that it would end temporary protected status for Myanmar nationals in the United States, effective January 26.

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem cited Myanmar's "notable progress in governance and stability," including elections, that allows the refugees "safe return."

In July, Vice President JD Vance's office reportedly met with industry groups urging Washington to seek an accommodation with the junta for access to Myanmar's rare earth elements, which are exported almost entirely to Washington's strategic rival China.

Around the same time, the United States lifted sanctions on several Myanmar entities close to the military.

ASEAN's stance on Myanmar

Myanmar's military leaders have been barred from some high-level meetings with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to their failure to implement the bloc's 2021 five-point plan to address the Myanmar crisis.

Myanmar was blocked from holding the bloc's annually rotating presidency this year, but Malaysia, last year's chairman, said the group would review Myanmar's situation after the elections.

"Readmission of the Myanmar junta in a civilian disguise into the bloc could create discomfort in high-level political and diplomatic meetings but might not create any barriers for the EU's further engagement with ASEAN," Sabe Soe, director of the NGO Burma Center Prague, told DW.

EU officials who spoke to DW were adamant Brussels won't change track. "The EU's position on Myanmar is based on its own assessment of the situation on the ground," said a spokesperson.

Beke said that while the EU recognizes the different approaches adopted by other international actors, "the EU's position is guided by consistency, respect for international norms and the conviction that long-term stability can only be built on legitimacy and the rule of law."

Edited by: Keith Walker