North Korea's latest and reportedly most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile launch is worrying, especially for the US. At the same time it allows for new diplomacy. Fabian Kretschmer reports from Seoul.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Lee Jin-man
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Wednesday's missile launch was a mission accomplished for North Korea. In January, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he wanted to complete his country's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program by the end of year. Ten months later, the dictator appears to have achieved his goal.
The new type of long-range ICBM, called Hwasong-15, rose to an altitude of about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) for about 50 minutes before landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone. The ICBM range would therefore be sufficient to target any part of the United States.
Reacting to the missile launch, Lindsey Graham, a Republican Party senator, told the CNN news broadcaster that the US was heading for a war with North Korea. When the moderator countered him by saying that the potential US-North Korea war would endanger millions of lives in Northeast Asia, the senator said the US president must choose between the security of the US and regional stability.
But the reactions from South Korea, the North's main rival, are very different. South Korean President Moon Jae In clearly said in a statement that the US government should refrain from thinking about a possible first strike against North Korea. At the same time, Moon advocated even stronger sanctions against Pyongyang.
A few minutes after the latest ICBM launch, the South Korean military also fired three missiles toward the Sea of Japan - a clear sign that North Korea's provocation would not intimidate Seoul.
Amid this tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, progressive North Korea experts emphasize the greater need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
"I believe that [after the latest launch] North Korea will remain quiet for some time," Andray Abrahamian, a researcher at Haneda University in Japan, told DW.
Kim Jong Un said Wednesday he had "achieved" his goal with the latest ICBM launch. Security analysts say it is likely that there won't be any missile launches in the near future.
"North Korea could now be ready for negotiations as it operates from a position of strength," said Abrahamian.
In addition to missile launches, the North has upped the "betting rate" for diplomatic negotiations. US President Donald Trump hinted in the past that he was potentially open to the idea of direct talks with the Kim regime.
ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength
For years, the international community downplayed the threat of North Korea's military power. With the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, it is clear that Pyongyang's military capabilities are growing.
Image: Gettty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Major achievement
In early June 2017, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Testing an ICBM marked a major military achievement for Pyongyang and a serious escalation of tensions with the United States and its allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Trouble with warheads
At the time, defense experts said the ICBM could reach as far as the US states of Alaska and Hawaii. However, it was unclear if North Korea can field an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on its cone that could survive reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. North Korean state media claimed the ICBM was capable of carrying a "large, heavy nuclear warhead" to any part of the United States.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Pyongyang's nuclear tests - six times and counting
The ICBM is believed to be a step forward in the North's nuclear program. Despite pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has made no secret of its nuclear ambitions. Alongside its ritual ballistic missile tests, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests on at least six occasions, including one in September 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
US running out of patience?
Responding to the first ICBM test with a show of force, the US and South Korean troops on conducted "deep strike" precision missile drills using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea's Hyunmoo Missile II. In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North.
Image: picture-alliance/Zumapress/M. Brown
Testing the boundaries
Ignoring international condemnation, Pyongyang test-launched another rocket on July 28, 2017, just weeks after its first ICBM test. In both of the tests, North Korea used Hwasong-14 missile, but the second one reached a higher altitude and traveled a larger distance than the first one, according to the state media.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KCNA
Whole of US within range?
Pyongyang conducted its third test November 29, using a newly developed Hwasong-15 missile. US, Japanese and South Korean officials said it rose to about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) over about 50 minutes before landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone off the country's coast.
Image: picture-alliance/MAXPPP
One of the world's largest militaries
Apart from a developing missile and nuclear program, North Korea has a powerful army with 700,000 active troops and another 4.5 million in the reserves. It can call upon almost a quarter of its population to serve in the army at any given time. The North's bloated army is believed to outnumber its southern neighbor's by two-to-one.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Vast capabilities
According to the 2017 Global Firepower Index, the North has, as part of a far-reaching arsenal, 458 fighter aircraft, 5,025 combat tanks, 76 submarines, and 5,200,000 total military personnel. The picture above from 2013 shows leader Kim Jong Un ordering strategic rocket forces to be on standby to strike US and South Korean targets at any time.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Enemies all around
Alongside the United States, Pyongyang views its neighbors South Korea and Japan as its two other main enemies. North Korea has used US military exercises in the region as means of galvanizing its people, claiming that the exercises are dress rehearsals for an impending invasion.
Image: Reuters/K. Hong-Ji
Huge, colorful demonstrations of military might
Every year, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and citizens roll through the streets of the capital Pyongyang to take part in the North's military parades. Preparations for the rallies often begin months in advance, and the parades usually mark important anniversaries linked with the Communist Party or Kim Jong Un's family.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
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Time for negotiations?
"We must do something to improve the situation," Hwang Jae Ho, the head of the Institute for International Relations at Hankuk Foreign Language University in Seoul, told DW.
Hwang has big hopes from the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. He believes that if North Korea agrees to send its athletes to the games, this would be a message that the regime is ready for negotiations.
At the same time, Hwang says the most realistic response to easing tension would be a "double freeze" agreement proposed by China. According to the proposal, North Korea must freeze its nuclear program and the South discontinues or significantly reduces its joint military exercises with the US. The expert says he hopes the regime in Pyongyang would be ready for such a deal, and in addition regular oil deliveries or compensation payments from the US for the Korean War, which hasn't officially ended.
Experts also say that the Hwasong-15 launch could bring the international community to the point where it was once in the mid-90s, when a fragile nuclear deal between then US President Bill Clinton and North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung was achieved.
