Meteorologists were able to forecast Storm Sabine well before it hit Germany. But they will have it harder when 5G networks spread. The new mobile phone frequencies disrupt weather satellites.
Image: AFP/Rammb/Noaa/Ho
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Weather forecasting has never been as precise as it is today. That's thanks in large part to Earth observation satellites, which record and deliver a variety of exact weather data. That data then gets fed into computer models to generate weather reports.
One of those data is the level of water vapor in the atmosphere — that's water that evaporates and turns into steam, making it practically invisible. When that steam (a gas) cools, we get clouds.
Satellites run by the European Space Agency (ESA) and its American counterpart, NASA, monitor such developments. They make the process visible. And that's extremely important for meteorologists.
The better the data, the better meteorologists can forecast storms, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones and when and where those weather events will make landfall. But if they don't have good data, those predictions can be wrong by hundreds of kilometers.
The intrinsic radiation of steam molecules
Weather satellites measure atmospheric steam, or water vapor, using passive sensors. Those sensors can detect very weak, microwave signals in a spectral band between 23.6 and 24 gigahertz (GHz).
"The radiation is caused by the smallest changes in the speed at which water molecules rotate," says Dr. Clemens Simmer, a professor of meteorology at the University of Bonn, Germany. "And we measure water vapor at 22.235 GHz, where other gases and even clouds have practically no effect. So, we're only measuring the water vapor. The emission is nothing more than heat radiation, the same as in a kitchen stove — except we're measuring it in a different spectral range."
Simmer is concerned that some weather satellites could become blind in certain areasImage: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms Universität Bonn
Frequency grab
The problem is that the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) decided at its 2019 world conference (WRC-19) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, that the new 5G mobile network should operate in the range of 24.25 and 27.5 GHz.
That leaves a slim 0.25 GHz of separation between 5G mobile telecommunications and that all-important water vapor range that meteorologists need to predict storms. It's almost inevitable that 5G — its send-and-receive masts and our mobile devices — will disrupt the flow of weather data to meteorologists.
"The emissions don't just stop at 24 GHz because every transmitting device has a certain range," says Simmer. "It's unavoidable with some bandwidths. There will be interference."
Add to that the fact that the emissions from water vapor are very weak.
"They are very low changes in the levels of energy of the water molecules and that's what makes this so difficult, because the smallest interference can wreck the signal," Simmer adds. "So, we need very low thresholds for transmitters that emit signals below the 24 GHz."
Tiny transmitter — big effect
Today's weather satellites have a surface range-resolution of between 10 and 30 kilometers (6.2 and 18 miles). That means that a cell tower or mobile devices that stray into a weather satellite's frequency range could disrupt its readings for a larger area.
To begin with, that could be a big problem for urban centers and residential areas. But as there are plans to use 5G to support autonomous driving, the problem could soon also affect long-distance routes and freeways. And that won't be the end of it.
"5G will most certainly get implemented on ships and airplanes," says Simmer. "We'll get these same interferences all over the world."
The amazing things Sentinel satellites see
So far the EU's Copernicus program has sent three Sentinel satellites to observe Earth - 1A, 2A and 3A. But they're just the first halves. Enter Sentinel-1B, and the first mission becomes whole.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
From the French Riviera
It may be among the strangest places on Earth, but this is where a lot of the European Union's Sentinel satellite equipment is being built for the Copernicus Earth Observation program. In Cannes, Thales Alenia Space is responsible for the Sentinel-1 satellites and a few of the others, too. The contractors include Airbus and many more. Sentinel-1B launches this week, making the first mission whole.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
The story so far
Sentinel-1A was the first to launch on April 3, 2014. Since then, two have followed - Sentinel-2A on June 23, 2015 and Sentinel-3A on February 16, 2016. This shot from Sentinel-3A is one of its earliest. It shows the River Nile and Delta and parts of the Middle East. Using a sea and land surface temperature radiometer (SLSTR), the satellite measures the energy radiating from Earth's surface.
Image: ESA/modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2016
In spectacular true color
This incredibly sharp image shows Red Sea coral reefs off the coast of Saudi Arabia. It was captured by Sentinel-2A on June 28, 2015. The quality of the Sentinel images is a vast improvement on previous satellite missions, such as Envisat. The Sentinel-2 mission is for land monitoring. It provides images of vegetation, soil and water cover, inland waterways and coastal areas.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
In spectacular false color
This false color image of south Khartoum in Sudan was one of the first from Sentinel-2A, captured five days after it arrived in orbit. In the top right corner you can see a bit of the Blue Nile River. The scattered red blotches along the river banks indicate dense vegetation, which is one of the things the satellite monitors. It's a false color image, as color was added to aid interpretation.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
Harbor under threat
This is another great shot from Sentinel-2A, showing Sierra Leone in West Africa. The country's capital, Freetown, is on the peninsula at the bottom of the image. Its economy depends on the natural deep water harbor. But ESA says the estuary is "threatened by a growing population [and] unauthorized housing development," which has caused the removal of many hectares of mangrove vegetation.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
The 'Yuma checkerboard'
Many of the Sentinel images are like works of art. You don't really have to know what's going on to appreciate them. But scientists, policymakers and authorities charged with national security rely on satellite imagery. And given the tools and skills, normal folk can benefit too. The Copernicus program is driven by a principle of Open Data. This shows Yuma in southwestern Arizona.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
Tracking change in the Aral Sea
This is the Aral Sea as captured by Sentinel-1A. It's a composite of three radar scans taken between 2014 and 2015. ESA says the Aral Sea is a "striking example of humankind's impact on the environment and natural resources. [...] It has lost around 90 percent of its water volume since 1960 because of Soviet-era irrigation schemes." The different colors show the changes between the scans.
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2014/2015
Meanwhile, Back in Berlin…
Captured by Sentinel-2A, this image shows a vibrant Berlin, the German capital, in exquisite detail. It shows how green the city is, with the Tegeler See and Wannsee on the western side. There's also the former airport, the Tempelhofer Feld, in the lower center of the image, which in summer blooms with people, kites and bikes. All these images can be seen in full: www.esa.int/spaceimages/Images
Image: ESA/Copernicus Sentinel data 2015
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Fight for spectrum
And it's nothing new. Meteorologists are already having to deal with intrusions in frequency ranges that have been reserved for them. Take, for example, the range of 1.4 GHz in the L band. That's where ESA's Earth observation satellite SMOS measures ground moisture and humidity.
"The moister the ground, the less energy it radiates. We can measure that and feed it into weather forecasts," says Simmer.
"We're already running costly, 'pre-processing' algorithms to calculate disturbances in the readings," he says, "which means detecting what's a disturbance and what's a measurable signal to filter the data. But we're losing data because of it."
It's possible that disturbances in this range are caused by remote control, such as those used to open and close garage doors. That's happening a lot in Asia. It could be because more devices, using those particular frequencies, are sold there.
With 5G, the effect could be incomparably worse than those caused by individual remote controls. "I imagine that sensors in highly-populated frequency bands will be practically blind," says Simmer.
No turning back
In an attempt to minimize the risk of data disruptions, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has asked that the strength of 5G transmitters be limited.
The WMO has proposed that cell towers operating close to weather satellite frequencies should be limited to transmit at -55 dBW (Decibel Watt) and devices limited to -51 dBW. That's equal to a signal strength of less than 10 microwatts.
But negotiators at the WRC-19 in Sharm el-Sheikh were unresponsive to the WMO demands. Instead, ITU negotiators set the limits at -33 dBW, which is a signal strength of 1 milliwatt.
Then, from 2027 they say there will be stricter rules, with limits of -39 dBW for cell towers and -35 dBW for receivers, such as cell phones.
Simmer says that could be too late for meteorologists. He fears that early stages of 5G could be especially critical if manufacturers start flooding the worldwide market with technology that meets less restrictive standards.
"I'm not sure whether we'll then still be able to turn the clock back," says Simmer. "With all that's being decided now, the manufacturers can say: 'Right, we're sticking with this for the next 10 years.'"
Photos: Storm Sabine wreaks havoc across northern Europe
Sabine brought hurricane-strength winds and heavy rain to Britain and Ireland, sparking power outages and flooding. The powerful storm then hit France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Zwiebler
Storm chaos in southern Germany
Authorities issued widespread weather warnings in the south German states of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, which were expected to experience some of the worst of the bad weather. In Bavaria, around 60,000 homes were without electricity after the storm caused a power cut.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Zwiebler
Storm disrupts Monday's commute
Long-distance and regional train services were suspended overnight across Germany, and commuters faced disruption as they tried to take trains to work on Monday morning with some services still canceled or delayed, with trains traveling at slower speeds due to high winds.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
Meter-high spray in Schleswig-Holstein
In Germany's northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein there was meter-high spray from the North Sea at the ferry port of Dagebüll. In St. Peter-Ording, also on the North Sea coast, some parents took their children out to play in the wind, along with some brave kitesurfers.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. Marks
Storm aids record-breaking flights
Many flights were cancelled but the ferocious gusts also aided flights. Propelled by wind from the storm, a British Airways plane was thought to have made the fastest New York-to-London flight made by a conventional airliner, completing the 3,500 mile journey in just four hours and 56 minutes.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. Thissen
Injuries reported
Winds have knocked over trees and other heavy objects, causing damage to vehicles and disrupting traffic. Several injuries were reported, including one woman in critical condition in Germany after a tree fell on her vehicle.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Battering winds
Storm Sabine, or Ciara as it's called outside of Germany, brought down trees and powerlines as it lashed parts of northern Europe. More than 30,000 homes in Britain, and some 10,000 in Ireland, were without electricity.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/R. Tang
Flood warnings
Heavy rain pounded much of the UK, prompting the Met Office to issue 190 emergency flood warnings. Waters rose rapidly in Mytholmroyd (pictured) in England's north, after the River Calder burst its banks.
Image: AFP/O. Scarff
Massive gusts
The howling winds also caused traffic chaos, with scores of flights and train services canceled across the continent. The UK Met Office said the highest wind speed recorded was 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour at the northern Welsh village of Aberdaron.
Image: imago images/ZUMA Press
Sabine on mainland Europe
The storm also battered the city of Wimeureux and other parts of northern France, where parks, cemeteries and outdoor markets were closed. The bad weather affected Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark and Germany, before moving east to Czechia.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Charlet
Storm surge
Sabine arrived on Germany's northwest on Sunday morning, hitting the coastal towns of Emden and Kiel, and the North Sea island, Sylt. Ferry services in the region were canceled, while the ports of Dover in England and Calais in France were shut down completely because of the dangerous swell.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Assanimoghaddam
Passengers stranded
Düsseldorf and Frankfurt airports in western Germany canceled scores of flights on Sunday as Sabine began moving south towards the state of Bavaria. Flights were also affected in the cities of Hamburg, Berlin, Hannover, Dortmund, Cologne and Stuttgart. Similar disruptions were reported at London's Heathrow Airport, Brussels Airport and Amsterdam's Schiphol.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Young
Atop the Brocken
Wind speeds on northern Germany's highest peak, the Brocken, reached 156 km/h on Sunday evening, according to the German weather service. Forecasts warned there could be gusts as strong as 180 km/h there overnight.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. März
Sports events, school canceled
Authorities warned millions of people in the affected countries to stay indoors. Dozens of events were called off as a result of the weather, including the Premier
League football match between Manchester City and West Ham, and a German soccer league game between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Cologne. All schools were closed on Monday in Luxembourg and the western German city of Cologne.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Weihrauch
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Climate measurements at risk
If meteorologists lose their water vapor spectrum, it will be a loss for climate researchers as well. "We've got satellites in this frequency which have been delivering data since the 1980s," says Simmer. "That's a unique series of measurements in climate monitoring that we would be giving up."
Simmer is worried that this struggle between telecommunications providers, meteorologist and government bodies is far from over.
"The next thing they are targeting is the 30s GHz range. That's the only range where we can get high quality measurements of cloud moisture. That's just before the 50-60 GHz range, where we measure temperature profiles," he says.
Telecommunications providers have got their eyes on both those ranges, says Simmer. So, it's looking like it will only get tougher for meteorologists. Because you need many more machines if you want to transmit in those higher frequency bands. The higher the frequency, the more impermeable the atmosphere gets. And the network of send-and-receive has to be all the denser for it, says Simmer.
These frequencies have been reserved for meteorologists for 30 or 40 years. If they lose their battle over the introduction of 5G, those higher frequencies look set to fall.
Earth observation satellites can help us understand planet Earth better. They can do much more than just predicting the weather - an overview
Image: NASA.gov
Measuring the sea level
Jason-3 was launched on January 17th, 2016. It took over from Jason-2 in October of that year. The satellite became part of a large Network of NASA satellites, looking at sea Levels and at oceanic and atmospheric currents.
Image: NASA.gov
Is the sea level rising, or is the continent sinking?
Level recorders installed at shore can't answer that question. However, satellites can recognize continental shift. That's why NASA launched its Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) using the satellites Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, -2 and later -3 to solve the mystery. Jason-2 sent us topographical radar images, and its successor Jason-3 has additional tools on board -- a radiometer and a laser.
Image: NASA.gov
Lots of data for environment and development
Without Earth observation satellites, we would not understand our planet as well as we do now. Sentinel-2 took this picture of the northern shore of the Adriatic with the Italian Alps in late June, shortly after its launch. Sentinel-2 is part of the European Space Agency's (ESA) comprehensive Copernicus Earth observation program.
Image: Copernicus data/ESA
Small box, great camera
Sentinel-2 uses a spectrometer, which is a special camera that can take pictures at numerous light wavelengths. This enables scientists to see all kinds of details in pictures that you can't detect with the naked eye, including the status of vegetation or the moisture in the soil. Here, engineers are preparing the satellite for its journey.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Kneffel
What grows where and how well?
A view of Northern Italy: The city of Pavia in the upper left corner with the river Ticino flowing into the larger Po. The infrared spectrum of the camera reveals the state of the agriculture: Scientists can even see what is growing on the fields - is it corn, wheat or pumpkins on this one?
Image: Copernicus data/ESA
Twins for better observation
Many Earth observation satellites are not alone in their mission; they do their job better as a team. This is also true for Sentinel-1 and -2, which eventually will each get a support satellite. Together they can document every spot on the surface of the planet every five days. The Copernicus Program includes six modules (Sentinel-1 through -6) for all kinds of tasks.
Image: ESA/ATG medialab
Radar for topography
One task is measuring the topography of the land, just as Jason-3 does with the sea. Sentinel-1 is built for that, with its large radar antennas. It can detect hills, mountains and valleys. The data the satellite generates can later be combined with the data from Sentinel-2 or other satellites. This gives farmers, developers and environmental agencies exactly the information they need.
Image: ESA/ATG medialab
The Netherlands are all but flat.
The radar-eye of the satellite took this picture of the Dutch coast. It shows that the country is not as flat as many may believe. Dunes, buildings and levees can be clearly seen.
Image: ESA
Its not just, what's on the surface…
ESA's SWARM mission is a whole different type of Earth observation: Three satellites are circling the Earth, looking deep into the core of the planet. The SWARM satellites have been recording changes in the magnetic field of the Earth since 2013.
Image: Astrium/picture-alliance/dpa
Changes you cannot see
Scientists are interested in the Earth's magnetic field because it is constantly changing. Under the Earth's crust, magma is constantly moving and changing the magnetic makeup. Even the magnetic poles sometimes swap places. Knowing this is extremely important for the sea and air navigation.
Image: GFZ
Observing Earth with the Sun in mind
Earth magnetism also affects our relationship to the sun. The magnetic field shields us against cosmic and sun rays, which can be particularly strong after sunspot eruptions. If the Earth's magnetism changes, it also changes the way particles from solar rays travel around the Earth's poles. Satellites looking toward Earth can sometimes reveal these secrets from far away.
