As US President Trump and South Korea's Moon prepare for summits with North Korean leader Kim, Tokyo fears being left behind. But Japanese PM Abe has little leverage over North Korea. Julian Ryall reports from Tokyo.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Hoshiko
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Japan is hoping to capitalize on the recent outbreak of diplomacy in Northeast Asia by arranging a face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, although analysts suggest the Japanese leader has far fewer bargaining chips with which to entice the regime in Pyongyang to the bargaining table.
Abe announced that he would be keen to hold direct talks with Kim during a telephone conversation with South Korean President Moon Jae-in late last week.
The Japanese leader has been one of the staunchest supporters of the international community taking a hard line against Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, but he has apparently recognized that Japan is being left behind as both Seoul and Washington engage with Kim.
Both Moon and Trump have agreed to meet Kim, with a summit that brings together the two Korean leaders penciled in for before the end of April. The talks between Kim and Trump are considered slightly more difficult to arrange, in part because of the unpredictability of both leaders, although there are suggestions that discussions are underway to hold the meeting in Sweden or Finland.
And while Japan is inevitably concerned about the North's nuclear and missile programs, it is likely that Abe's main area of focus will be the question of Japanese citizens who were abducted by the North in order to train future agents that would be infiltrated into Japanese society. Officially, Tokyo has evidence of less than 20 Japanese who have been kidnapped, although rights groups here have a list of more than 100 people who have gone missing in mysterious circumstances and they believe may well have been snatched by North Koreans.
"Both men are deeply unpredictable, but it does appear that the Trump-Kim meeting could happen and Japan does not want to be left out of the conversation," said Robert Dujarric, a professor of international relations at the Japan campus of Temple University.
"But, in reality, there is not too much for Japan and North Korea to discuss because Japan has little to offer the North in exchange for the release of the abductees – or even information on them – and there would appear to be little advantage for Kim to meet Abe," he told DW.
"Kim's priority is talking with the US and South Korea because those are the countries that he is facing militarily and diplomatically, which makes Japan far less important. Meeting Trump will be something of a victory for Kim because it will bestow legitimacy on a regime that has until now been seen as a global pariah and put him at the level of an international statesman," he said.
"Japan, on the other hands, just wants something from the North and they are unlikely to want to spend time talking about the abductees."
North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet
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Abductees' tragic tale
"The story of those who were abducted is tragic, but there is, in truth, not a lot that can be done if the North does not want to cooperate," Dujarric said.
The only possible leverage that could be applied, believes Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University, is an offer to relax unilateral sanctions that Tokyo has imposed on the North specifically over the question of the abductees.
"I spoke to Abe on this very issue about a year ago and he said to me at the time that he would only go to a summit in North Korea if they guaranteed that they would allow the abductees to leave on the plane with him when it was over," Shimada told DW. "I see no reason why he would have changed his mind on this matter since then."
"The abductees are an extremely important issue for Abe personally and for Japan as a nation," he said. "There is no point on going to talks if they are merely going to be about procedures or trivial things."
Shimada concedes, however, that North Korea "despises" Japan and that convincing Kim to take part in talks will be difficult.
"The only thing that Japan has is the strictest sanctions in the world, which go far beyond the United Nations Security Council sanctions," Shimada said. "If the North is aware that relaxing those sanctions is on the table for discussion, then it is possible that they might agree to talk."
The last time leaders of the two nations met in person was in 2004, when the then-Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi flew to Pyongyang for talks with Kim's late father, Kim Jong il, and managed to secure the release of a handful of Japanese abductees.
The situation has changed dramatically in the intervening 14 years, however, with bilateral relations icy. But if the North Korean leadership is genuinely interested in re-engaging with the international community – a big "if," analysts emphasize – then they will need to have a working relationship with Tokyo.
"Naturally, Kim is presently focused on his planned meeting with Trump," Shimada noted. "But if the preliminary talks between the US and North Korea make reference to the abductees issue and the US can insist that they are part of any future agreement, then it might happen."
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
