South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is in the United States, where he is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump on May 21, in a crucial face-to-face talk that will set the tone for future relations between the two countries.

It will be the first time Trump has hosted an African leader at the White House since he took office in January. Trump never visited Africa during his first term. On the other hand, Ramaphosa's last working visit to Washington was in 2022 when former US President Joe Biden was still in office.

But since early 2025, relations between the United States and South Africa have deteriorated rapidly, driven by ideological differences, geopolitical alliances, and domestic policy conflicts.

"The president's visit to the US provides a platform to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries," the South African presidency said in a statement.

However, some analysts have warned that Ramaphosa's three-day visit is unlikely to be easy, with fears it could turn hostile or confrontational.

"The objective is to try to clean up South Africa's image and remove the perception that Trump is putting forward about South Africa as a country where a genocide against white Afrikaaners is taking place," Fredson Guilengue from the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in Johannesburg told DW.

Refuting Trump's claims of 'genocide' against white South Africans

Ramaphosa's trip comes just days after the US welcomed a group of white South African "refugees" who President Donald Trump claimed were being persecuted in South Africa because of their race, and facing "genocide". They flew to the US on a special relocation plan and will be allowed to settle there.

Ramaphosa's government denies the allegations and says white people, who own more than 70% of the land in South Africa, despite making up just 7% of the population, are not discriminated against.

Ramaphosa will also seek to present a new trade framework that is going to govern trade between the two countries, especially in the post-AGOA period, Guilengue said.

The Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), is a trade agreement between the US and eligible sub-Saharan African countries. Expiring on October 1, 2025,  it allows African nations to export products to the US duty-free, and the idea is that it help the African continent in its development agenda.

A new US-South Africa trade deal?

Trump's recent trade tariffs signaled the end of the AGOA. South Africa's automotive industry, for instance, will suffer substantially from Trump's tariffs because of the high level of exports to the US, and it is hoped that Ramaphosa will be able to change the situation.

Tensions also rose because of Trump's recent trade policies, which hit South Africa hard, but also because of the cuts in US aid for development projects.

The relationship was already strained after South Africa filed a case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in The Hague, alleging that the Israeli military was committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Another aspect of the breakdown of relations is South Africa's role within BRICS. "It threatens Americans globally and South Africa as one of the active members of the BRICS group is not seen positively by the US," Guilengue added.

BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising 10 countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

South Africans skeptical

Given the tense geopolitical climate, how do South Africans view Ramaphosa's trip? "There is that minor segment in South African society that believes that it is important that Ramaphosa uses this opportunity to redress South Africa's independence, it has the right to choose partners with whom to work and define its own diplomacy", Guilengue said.

He added that a larger segment of society was very skeptical about the presidents' meeting, knowing Trump's way of dealing with his opponents, pointing to the humiliation that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy experienced in the Oval Office in February.

The South African presidency in Pretoria confirmed that Trump had initiated the invitation for Ramaphosa. Guilengue stressed that the US president might still recognize South Africa as its largest trading partner on the African continent.

South Africa's role as G20-leader

For Daniel Silke, a political analyst and the director of the Political Futures Consultancy based in the legislative capital of South Africa Cape Town, an important factor is South Africa's leadership of the G20 this year.

"The G20 — despite comments from the US and attempts to withdraw from global organizations and bodies — remains one of the most important of these bodies", Silke told DW.

It is within that context that South Africa becomes elevated in terms of global importance and therefore it is reasonable that both sides meet in Washington, he added. 

Ramaphosa might try to convince Trump to join the summit in November in Johannesburg, which the US president plans to boycott.

Silke said Ramaphosa's visit has little to do with the refugee flight of white Afrikaners to the US. The issue will be raised, but will not play a major role in the talks, he noted.

"The US is taking maverick positions on all sorts of issues and Trump, in particular, will criticize a leader one day and will then reach out the hand of friendship if it is beneficial for the US."

The best way to deal with Trump is personally: "This is an issue of personal diplomacy and a personal relationship that needs to be forged even though it might be rocky," Silke explained, adding that in the end, it comes down to doing business. "For all of the chatter about tariffs it looks as the worst tariffs could be negotiated down. South Africa has got leverage on some critical minerals that it could also supply to the US."

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu