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Will the Iran war cause a global recession?

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April 17, 2026

The IMF warns global growth could plunge to near-recession levels as war disrupts energy and trade. How bad could this get? DW breaks the numbers down with IMF researcher Petya Koeva Brooks.

Rising fears of a global recession dominated IMF  and World Bank  spring meetings in Washington as the Iran war disrupts supply chains and energy markets.

New research from the IMF suggests that global growth could dip to near-recession levels in a severe scenario. While China's growth is cushioned by policy support and impacts on the US economy remains modest, emerging economies could face the heaviest strain.

Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy head of the IMF Research Department, speaks to Clifford Coonan of DW Business to break down the numbers and explain the war's impact on the global economy.

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