Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, told DW that the possibility of diversion is unsurprising given the Trump administration’s long‑standing ambivalence toward supporting Ukraine and the scale of the Middle East conflict.

“This is a major, major effort of the United States and it's not surprising that if there's a need for weaponry, there are going to be tradeoffs and that the Trump administration would privilege the Middle Eastern theater over the European theater,” Kimmage said.

He noted that while Tomahawks are not central to Ukraine's battlefield needs — which currently rely heavily on drone warfare — their loss could still weaken Ukrainian air defenses amid intensified Russian missile and drone attacks across the country.

Beyond military impact, Kimmage warned that reduced US support may damage Ukraine’s diplomatic leverage, reinforcing perceptions that Kyiv is losing Western backing during early, fragile war‑ending negotiations.