Mario Götze and Renato Sanches were the breakout stars of two recent international tournaments. Both are still young and fit but will watch World Cup 2018 from afar, after missing the cut. Where did it all go wrong?
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For a number of German and Portuguese players, Saturday is a big night. Manuel Neuer needs to prove his match fitness against Austria, several of Joachim Löw's squad must impress in that match to avoid the axe on Monday and a host of Portuguese forwards will vie to bask in Cristiano Ronaldo's shadow as their country take on Belgium.
Both national teams have fresh memories of recent tournament wins but both will be without two of the key figures in those victories. Götze, who scored the winner in the 2014 World Cup final, and Sanches, the Young Player of Euro 2016, failed to make their respective squads, an unthinkable situation as recently as two years ago.
At just 25 and 20 respectively, the pair should, by common football assumptions, be in or approaching their peak years and missing out on one of the sport's grandest stages will undoubtedly hurt.
"Of course I'm sad that I'm not participating in the World Cup, "Götze, who already has 61 German caps, recently admitted.
A long way down
But it's very difficult to argue with the decisions of either Löw or Portugal boss Fernando Santos, and, in truth, neither omission was met with a huge amount of surprise. Götze's struggles since the 2014 World Cup have been scrupulously documented. After scaling the highest peak in football at 22, he's been sliding down the mountain ever since.
Mario Götze has struggled since returning to Borussia DortmundImage: picture-alliance/Pressefoto Robin Rudel
A promising pre-World Cup debut season at Bayern Munich preceded a decline that has become more pronounced as the seasons have passed. A metabolic illness has hampered his progress since his return to Dortmund but despite flashes of that rare vision and close control that still resides in him, four goals and nine assists in 48 games over the last two seasons is a fair reflection of a talent that, if not lost, is at least misplaced. An underwhelming tournament as a "false 9" at Euro 2016 added further grist to the mills of his detractors.
For Sanches, the fall has been faster still. Bayern were universally acclaimed for the shrewdness of snapping up the midfielder before he demonstrated a drive, ball-carrying ability and composure far beyond his 18 years. But after an indistinct first season under Carlo Ancelotti he was farmed out to Premier League club Swansea, where things went from bad to worse. The initial excitement generated by his signing soon turned to bafflement as Sanches' confidence visibly diminished by the game, before he hit a low point when stroking a pass out to an advertising board he had mistaken for a teammate.
He didn't even make Portugal's initial 35-man list for Russia and it seems he wasn't ever really in Santos' thoughts, with Sanches notable only by his omission in a list of names the coach found it hard to leave out.
"It was, of course, difficult to leave out Eder, Nani and others who wrote the most brilliant page in the history of Portuguese football," the coach said after naming the 35. "But I have to pick the ones who best complete the jigsaw."
Renato Sanches shot to prominence in Euro 2016Image: picture alliance/Pressefoto ULMER
Still a shot at redemption
Löw at least mentioned Götze when announcing his provisional squad of 27, offering sympathy for Götze's loss of form and status. Few things can be more frustrating for footballers than the men who decide their fate feeling sorry for them.
But the fact Löw and Santos have both left the door open for their lost boys speaks to both their talent and their youth. Bayern have recently said that despite rumors linking him with his former club, Benfica, Sanches will be given a chance to rediscover his lost mojo under Niko Kovac. He will still be just 24 by the time Qatar 2024 rolls around.
Both Sanches and Götze are confidence players, though Sanches can also fall back on a physical dynamism that Götze has lost. For the German playmaker, there's some sense that a summer off might be the best thing for him. His unfortunate illness has undoubtedly contributed to his decline, and may continue to do so, but it may just be that a summer off - and away from the spotlight - will be beneficial as he tries to adapt to the latest new regime at Dortmund.
However, there are no guarantees. As is the case in the financial sector, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future success. A few clubs may well do well to remember that when analyzing any single player who has a breakout tournament in Russia.
Germany's squad for World Cup 2018
Manuel Neuer made the cut after proving his fitness, while Leroy Sané's omission shocked the footballing world. Here are the 23 players charged with Germany's World Cup title defense in Russia.
Image: Reuters/M. Rehle
Manuel Neuer
Will Germany's best goalkeeper be fit enough to play? Even though Neuer missed most of the season with injury issues, Joachim Löw has brought his captain along in the hope that he recovers.
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International games: 74 / Goals: 0 / World Cup tournaments: 2
Image: picture-alliance/ZB
Marc-André ter Stegen
The Barcelona goalkeeper has been Löw's go-to option with Neuer on the shelf. With Germany's captain back in the fold, ter Stegen may have to make do with the bench, but he could also start while Neuer works on his fitness.
<br/> <br/> International games: 19 / Goals: 0 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: Reuters/G. Dukor
Kevin Trapp
Trapp is the main beneficiary of Neuer's failure to recover. He had an underwhelming season, making just 12 appearances for Paris Saint-Germain and some high profile errors, but he's made the cut, for now. <br/> <br/> International games: 3 / Goals: 0 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/SvenSimon/J. Kuppert
Jerome Boateng
The Bayern Munich man is arguably Germany's best defender, and one of the first names on Löw's teamsheet. But Boateng picked up a thigh injury against Real Madrid in March, casting doubt on whether he will be fit in time for the World Cup.<br/> <br/>International games: 70 / Goals: 1 / World Cup tournaments: 2
Image: picture alliance /Sven Simon
Mats Hummels
Boateng's central defensive partner at club and international level is one of Löw's key men. The question is not whether he is going to start at the World Cup, but who will be starting alongside him. <br/> <br/>International games: 63 / Goals: 5 / World Cup tournaments: 1
Image: picture alliance/sampics/S. Matzke
Antonio Rüdiger
The Chelsea defender evidently has Löw's trust, as proven by his regular playing time during World Cup qualifiers. He will likely be the primary backup to Boateng and Hummels.
<br/> <br/> International games: 23 / Goals: 1 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Becker
Niklas Süle
He had a strong first season at Bayern and has experience playing with both Hummels and Boateng. The 22-year-old is now poised to make his first World Cup squad.
<br/> <br/> International games: 9 / Goals: 0 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/AA/A. Nasyrov
Matthias Ginter
His transfer from Borussia Dortmund to Borussia Mönchengladbach hasn't done Ginter's international chances any harm. The utility man was the youngest squad member of the 2014 team, but didn't play a minute at the tournament. He'll be hoping for more this time, but may also struggle to make the final 23. <br/> <br/> International games: 17 / Goals: 0 / World Cup appearances: 1
Image: Lars Baron/Bongarts/Getty Images
Joshua Kimmich
The Bayern defender has not only become Germany's best right back, but one of the best right backs in the world. Löw will need him at his best at the World Cup.
<br/> <br/> International games: 27 / Goals: 3 / World Cup appearances: 0
Image: picture-alliance/GES/T. Eisenhuth
Jonas Hector
He will be playing in the second division next season after Cologne were relegated from the Bundesliga. Before then, Hector is likely to make his World Cup debut as Löw's starting left back.
<br/> <br/> International Games: 36 / Goals: 3 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/Gladys Chai von der Laage
Marvin Plattenhardt
Despite making his international debut at the Confederations Cup last year, the Hertha Berlin man finds himself with a decent chance of travelling to Russia. A set piece specialist, the 26-year-old will be backup for Hector.
<br/> <br/> International Games: 6 / Goals: 0 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/sampics/S. Matzke
Toni Kroos
A metronomic presence, Kroos is expected to run the show in midfield for the defending champions. The Real Madrid midfielder has been an automatic selection for Germany for some time, and could enter the tournament with another Champions League title under his belt.
<br/> <br/> International games: 82 / Goals: 12 / World Cup appearances: 2
Image: picture-alliance/GES/T. Eisenhuth
Sami Khedira
At 31, the Juventus midfielder may no longer be at the height of his powers. But his leadership is what Löw covets most and his commanding presence on the field will, almost certainly, earn him a starting spot.
<br/> <br/> International games: 73 / Goals: 7 / World Cup tournaments: 2
Image: picture alliance/dpa/M. Becker
Sebastian Rudy
He missed out on the 2014 World Cup in Brazil and the 2016 European Championship in France. After starting every game at the 2017 Confederations Cup, Rudy is trying to convince Löw to finally bring him to a major tournament. <br/> <br/> International games: 24 / Goals: 1 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture alliance/dpa/GES/M. I. Güngör
Ilkay Gündogan
The Manchester City midfielder is finally fit after missing Germany's last two major tournaments with various injuries. He is another deep-lying playmaker who can make things happen in midfield.<br/> <br/> International games: 24 / Goals: 4 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/GES-Sportfoto
Mesut Özil
The Arsenal midfielder is one of the best playmakers in the world, but has often drawn criticism for a perceived propensity to disappear at the crucial moments. Despite the political furor earlier in the week, he will be one of Löw's primary options in Russia.
<br/> <br/> International games: 89 / Goals: 22 / World Cup tournaments: 2
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Maurer
Thomas Müller
"Müller always plays," former Bayern coach Louis Van Gaal once said. He is not a forward in the conventional sense, but he always seems to find a way to score goals. He has World Cup pedigree too - he won the Golden Boot in 2010 and the Silver Boot in 2014.
<br/> <br/> International games: 90 / Tore: 38 / World Cup tournaments: 2
Image: picture-alliance/S. Simon
Marco Reus
The 29-year-old finally seems set to make his World Cup debut. He just has to get through a training camp in South Tyrol without injuring himself...
<br/> <br/> International goals: 29 / Goals: 9 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/Rauchensteiner
Julian Draxler
Another Löw favorite, Draxler captained Germany at the Confederations Cup last year. After not getting the playing time he craved at Paris Saint-Germain this term, Draxler is looking to seize his opportunity at international level.
<br/> <br/> International games: 42 / Goals: 6 / World Cup tournaments: 1
Image: picture-alliance/GES/M. I. Güngör
Leon Goretzka
The soon-to-be Bayern midfielder followed up his impressive Confederations Cup showing with a strong season for Schalke. However, he's likely to be back on the bench with Germany's stars back in the fold.
<br/> <br/> International games: 14 / Goals: 6 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Probst
Julian Brandt
The 22-year-old winger took on more responsibility at Leverkusen this season. Now he's aiming to cement his place in Löw's squad for years to come.
<br/> <br/> International games: 14 / Goals: 1 / World Cup tournaments: 0
The Leipzig forward is small, quick and explosive — unlike most of Germany's other striking options. The 22-year-old is likely Löw's first choice up front after winning the Golden Boot at last year's Confederations Cup.
<br/> <br/> International games: 12 / Goals: 7 / World Cup tournaments: 0
Image: picture-alliance/GES/M. Ibo
Mario Gomez
The Stuttgart forward has fallen down the pecking order since his terrific performance at Euro 2016. Even at 32, he is still one of Germany's most prolific goal scorers, but he has to be in tip-top shape in order to convince Löw to take him to Russia.
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International games: 73 / Goals: 31 / World Cup tournaments: 1
