A strong police presence on Zambian streets accompanied the beginning of the country's multi-party elections on Tuesday. Some 5.1 million people are registered to vote in the municipal, parliamentary and presidential polls.

Zambia's 10 presidential candidates have been to all corners of the country to woo voters in the tripartite elections. But the closest battle will be between the ruling Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) and the Patriotic Front (PF).

Incumbent President Banda, head of MMD, is expected to narrowly beat his challenger and PF leader Michael Sata in a repeat of the 2008 presidential election, when Banda won by just 35,000 votes against Sata.

Analysts have described the elections as the most competitive one so far, with campaigns focusing on mudslinging. Isaac Kabelenga, a lecturer at the University of Zambia, said the run-up to the election has been too focused on character assassination.

"As a political analyst, I think that's not the way politics is supposed to be because we are talking about change," Kabelenga said. "You don't necessarily change society by focusing on an individual. You have to focus on real issues: the economy, social, political and cultural issues that such a person, if voted into power, is going to address. That is what I think brings about change."

Chinese investment on the rise

One major issue, however, that was focused on in the campaign is China's growing role in Zambia. The Asian giant has been particularly interested in Zambia's mining sector. As Africa's leading copper producer, the privatization of the mining sector in the late 1990s has drawn billions of dollars of investment.

China has become one of Zambia's closest allies. The annual growth rate of bilateral trade between the two nations has remained above 30 percent since 2000. In 2010, total investments by Chinese firms surpassed $2 billion (1.46 billion euros), according to data by the Chinese embassy in Zambia.

Most Chinese investors have continued to be anti-union and to flout labor laws with impunity. Last October, two Chinese managers at the Collum Coal Mine in southern Zambia shot and wounded at least 11 miners as they protested poor working conditions. The charges against the two men were later dropped.

Urban versus rural

During the campaign, President Banda, a Swedish-trained economist, tried to focus on economic issues. He is credited with successfully presiding over an economy dependent on commodities through the recent global financial crisis. He based his campaign on promising more developmental projects for the benefit of the Zambian people.

The MMD, which has run the nation since the end of one-party rule in 1991, claims most of its support in the countryside where farmers have benefited from a hugely successful agricultural subsidy scheme.

Sata's strength is in the capital, Lusaka, and the northern Copper Belt, where many people complain that the fruits of economic liberalization have passed them by. Known in Zambian political circles as "King Cobra" due to his venomous tongue, Sata has based the PF campaign on telling the Zambians that he will lower taxes and put more money in their pockets.

Analyst Neo Simutanyi, executive director of the Center for Policy Dialogue in Lusaka, said he is worried a close election could cause unrest.

"There are insinuations by the opposition, especially the Patriotic Front, that they will not accept the results if it does not go their way," Simutanyi said. "I think that is very dangerous being the first-past-the-post system." This voting procedure means the candidate with the most votes wins, even if he does not have the absolute majority.

"In a simple majority kind of scenario, it's possible for someone to win - even by a few votes," Simutanyi said.

Women hope for more power

Meanwhile the Non Governmental Organizations Coordinating Council (NGOCC), an umbrella organization of women's NGOs in Zambia, said it expects the new government to come up with a constitution that will promote gender equality.

"The first thing the Zambian women want is a constitution that is representative of the views of the majority of Zambians, including women," said NGOCC programs manager Bridget Kalaba. "The other thing that we want is the issue of empowerment of women and youths."

Initial results from urban areas are expected to be announced late Tuesday, with the nationwide outcome likely on Friday.

Author: Cathy Sikombe, Lusaka, Sabina Casagrande
Editor: Rob Mudge