[Video transcript]

Two and a half years into this war and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he has a plan for victory. 

No more improvisation and crisis management — he says it's a plan to end this war on Ukraine's terms. And one conceived in Kyiv, not in Western capitals.

But what do we know about this plan? 

Zelenskyy is presenting his proposals to allies behind closed doors. He started with Joe Biden during a recent visit to Washington. The idea for this week was to present it to more leaders at a summit in Germany before making the plan public. With the summit cancelled, he's now meeting Olaf Scholz in Berlin for bilateral talks. 

American media reports cited unnamed US officials suggesting the reaction in Washington to Zelenskyy's plan was underwhelming.

It was criticized as little more than a rehash of old Ukrainian wish-lists. 

In Kyiv, the plan is widely understood to center on two key demands.

Firstly — more long-range weapons and permission to use them against targets deep in Russian territory.

And secondly — NATO membership for Ukraine, or at least US security guarantees like those given to Japan or South Korea. These guarantees would kick in after a cease-fire and be designed to prevent Russia attacking in future.

Ukrainian political analyst Mykola Davydiuk says it's not just a repackaging of old demands. He says Ukraine's position has moved and is now more nuanced.  

Mykola Davydiuk, Ukrainian political analyst: "Ukraine wants real, meaningful security guarantees. NATO membership would be the best possible kind of guarantee. But these guarantees don't have to apply to all Ukrainian territory."

NATO security guarantees could be limited to territory currently controlled by Kyiv. That way Ukraine would not be able to ask NATO allies for help retaking land already occupied by Russia.

Many in Ukraine are drawing parallels with West Germany, which joined NATO long before formalizing its post-World War II borders. Ukraine, they say, isn't asking for something that hasn't been done before.  

As for the continued push to use Western weapons against targets deep in Russia, Davydiuk says Ukraine's leaders don't see this as an end in itself. 

Mykola Davydiuk, Ukrainian political analyst: "We're not seeing any signals that Russia is ready to talk. Russia is pushing forward in Donbas, occupying new towns and calling up new soldiers. If Ukraine gets the capacity to strike Russia deep behind the front lines, Russia will see the balance of power changing, and not in their favour."

But the timing of Zelenskyy's Victory Plan initiative raises questions. 

The news from Ukraine's battlefields in recent months have been anything but good for Kyiv, as Russian tanks advance on the key town of Pokrovsk. 

Is this really the best moment to ask Western leaders to believe in Ukraine and deepen their involvement?

Observers suggest two possible explanations.

Firstly, the need for a new narrative to help Western governments justify continued financial support for Ukraine to their voters back home. One that talks of ending the war, rather than carrying on "as long as it takes."

And secondly, the window of opportunity towards the end of Joe Biden's presidency. A time in which Ukraine hopes Biden might take political risks without worrying about his poll ratings.

Risks such as allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with American weapons or making a firmer commitment to Ukraine joining NATO.

Mykola Davydiuk, Ukrainian political analyst: "This is about Biden's political legacy. When his predecessors got involved in European conflicts they always came out on the winning side. Biden needs his own win." 

And that’s why the last-minute cancellation of this summit has shaken so many in Kyiv. They see that window of opportunity closing. They worry that if Biden comes to Europe after the November election, he'd be a lame-duck president without the moral authority to take such big decisions.