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Rikicin Israila da Hezbollah: Mene ne sirrin kamewar Iran

Abdul-raheem Hassan
September 30, 2024

Duk da cewa Iran ce karfin Hezbollah a fannin makamai da kudade, ta ci gaba da yin shiru a yayin da rikici ke ci gaba da yin kamari a Lebanon. Me ya sa Tehran wannan kamewa?

Libanon | Eindrücke aus Zawtar nahe der israelischen Grenze
Hoto: Rabih Daher/AFP/Getty Images

Har yanzu Tehran ba ta ce komai ba, duk da harin baya-bayan nan da ya kashe shugaban kungiyar Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah. Ko me matakin yin shurun na Iran ke nufi? 

A hukumance, Isra'ila ba ta yi yaki da Lebanon, amma kungiyar Hezbollah wacce kasashe da dama ciki har da Amurka da Jamus suka ayyana a matsayin kungiyar ta'addanci na samun goyon bayan wasu kasashe, kungiyar Tarayyar Turai ta zargi Iran kai tsaye wajen ba wa kungiyar kudade da makamai. Amma rashin bayyana alkiblar Iran kan matsin lamba na baya-bayan na da ga cikin kalubalen da kungiyar ke fuskanta daga dakarun Isra'ila.Burcu Ozcelik, babban jami'in bincike kan tsaro a Gabas ta Tsakiya a cibiyar Royal United dake London, ya ce shuru da Iran ta yi alamun tabbatar da ramin maciji ne da ba ya jure zungura.

Karin Bayani: Kokarin yayyafa ruwan sanyi ga rikicin Isra'ila da Hesbollah

Lebanon | Mataimakin shugaban kungiyar Hizbullah Naim KassemHoto: Bilal Hussein/AP/picture alliance

"Da alama akwai ja-in-ja a bangaren Iran na kare Hizbullah kai tsaye, wanda hakan zai iya haifar da wata arangama ta soji kai tsaye da Isra'ila. Bugu da kari, wuraren matatun mai da sauran muhimman ababen more rayuwa na kasa. Don haka duk wata tsokana da za ta iya kai wa ga Isra'ila. Kai hari kan muhimman ababen more rayuwa na farko, shirin nukiliya, amma kuma man fetur da kayayyakin more rayuwa zai yi tasiri ga tattalin arzikin Iran da ya lalace, da huldar kasuwanci, da irin takunkumin da ta kakaba mata."

Karin Bayani: Yaki ka iya mamaye Gabas ta Tsakiya - Scholz

Sai dai duk da faregabar da ake ciki na yiwuwar rincabewar lamura sakamakon hare-haren daukar fansa daga Iran, kwana guda gabannin harin da ya kashe shugaban kungiyar Hizbullah a Lebanon, Firaiministan Isra'ila Benjamin Netanyahu ya jaddada cewa makamansa babu inda ba zasu iya zuwa ba cikin Iran. Wannan ya sa kwararre a fannin tsaro da nazarin soja a Cibiyar Nazarin Dabarun kasa ta Biritaniya (IISS) Fabian Hinz, cewa da kamar wuya Tehran ta shiga yakin soji kai tsaye da Isra'ila.

Hoto: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/REUTERS

"Iran tana goyon bayan Hizbullah saboda dalilai na akida a yakin da ake yi da Isra'ila, da kuma dalilai na siyasa a matsayin abin da zai iya hana kai hari kan Iran kanta.  A gefe guda kuma, Iran ta sha bayyanawa karara cewa wanzuwar gwamnatin Iran ita ce babban abin da ta sa gaba. Wannan ba wai kawai siyasar zagon kasa ba ce ta bayan fage, face akidar Shi'a zai iya rayuwa ne kawai idan tsarin Iran ya ci gaba da wanzuwa don haka ba sa son jefa kansu cikin wani babban hadari ta hanyar goyon bayan Hizbullah."

Karin Bayani:Iran ta kai wa Isra'ila hare-hare 300 da jirage marasa matuka

A watan Afrilun da ya gabata, Iran ta kai wani gagarumin hari kan Isra'ila amma ba ta kai ga haddasa gagurumin barna ba. Ban da haka kuma, kisan da Isra'ila ta yi wa shugaban Hamas Ismail Haniyeh a baya-bayan nan a Tehran da kuma kai hare-hare kan 'yan kungiyar Hizbullah. Fabian Hinz na Cibiyar Nazarin Dabarun kasa a Biritaniya na mai cewa.

Harin Israila a LebanonHoto: Ahmad Kaddoura/Anadolu/picture alliance

 "Abin da mutum zai iya karawa shi ne, a baya Iran ta sha dogaro da wasu ba 'yan gwamnati ba da kuma wadanda ake kira 'yan baranda wajen kai wa Isra'ila hari. Lokaci na karshe da Iran ta kai wani babban hari kan Isra'ila shi ne a watan Afrilu. Iran ba ta da ikon yi wa Isra'ila babban barna, wannan ya raunana karfin Iran, ya raunana amincin Iran, don haka duk wani karin shiga tsakani na soji a cikin wannan rikici, shi ma yana da babban hadari."

A bayyane yake karara cewa a yanzu, Iran na taka tsan-tsan wajen fifita lamuran cikin gida a maimakon abin da zai dagula mata lissafin siyasa a cikin gida, idan aka yi la'akari da mastayar mataimakin shugaban kasar Javad Zarif a makon jiya, cewa "Mun yi imanin Hizbullah na da karfin kare kanta"